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10nl - QTo BvB. 2pair vs turn raise!

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  • 10nl - QTo BvB. 2pair vs turn raise!

    The BB was playing 20/16/6.5 AF 1.5 over 93 hands. My table image was very LAG and I'd been seen firing multiple barrels on varioius occasions. I rasie preflop and get called, I proceed to make a half pot cbet for value to get called by FD's and worse 1 pair hands. I turn 2 pair and although the turn co-ordinated the board I decided to fire the second barrel for value. I think pair + draw hands will call as well as most draws since he has position and people love to call with draws IP. When he raises I was quite surprised and my first thought was to insta fold. However I realised that it was a great card to bluff me on, although I'm not going to be firing the second barrel here with air I have a lot of hands in my range that really can't take much heat. TcTs,TdTh,TdTs,ThTs,66,AJs,AhTh,KQs,KTs,QTs,JhTh,T h9h,AJo,KQo,KTo,QTo We're crushed against this, somewhat wide, range (with around 16% equity) so it should probably be a fold. However my spidy senses were tingling so I thought I'd open it up to debate. Is it possible that the villain will try to bluff us here with a one pair hand that called the flop hoping to get to showdown? If we add a hands such as JJ QJ KJ to his range then our equity shoots up to 36%. Also should we avoid this situation by checking the turn in an attempt to get to showdown cheaply?
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  • #2
    Hi Oli,

    Despite your image, I doubt he's bluffing, he's probably got it. Our best hope is that he's got a pair+draw combo like KJ or AhTh. I think folding is fine here, although if you call he will probably not bet the river with worse hands that have showdown value so you should win a showdown when you're good most of the time, and can fold unimproved when he bombs it.

    I do not like checking the turn, I think betting is right... he has a lot of Kx and draw combos we don't want to give a free card to, and being somewhat passive post flop he will often take one if we offer it.
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