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25NL - bottom set raised OTT

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  • 25NL - bottom set raised OTT

    Here's a tuff one. Villain 20/15/3 (119 Hands) 3bet 4% FoldCbet IP 0% (1) FoldCbet OOP 75% (4) What hands call flop, and raise turn? I think 77/22 would raise flop, so would 65 figuring that they have little equity with two spades on board and might need to turn their hand into a semi-bluff? The most hands that makes sense are 87, 88, or some random bluff trying to rep 65? What do you think? Should we fold here with the little info we have on villain?

  • #2
    Hey geo

    Assuming villain would raise flop with either 77 or 22 is a big hand reading error. Why would he do that on this flop texture necessarily?

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    • #3
      Well basically because there are two spades and raising them here can get value from my overpairs and FDs, and if a spade comes OTT it might kill the action.

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      • #4
        Hey Geo,

        If you ever fold your middle set on this board texture any villain who is HU with you should from now on raise the turn with any 2 cards showing a huge profit. The first thing I see is that there are presumably quite a few hands you 2 barrel this turn with right? What is your range for continuing against a raise? only 77,88 and 65? You open UTG so I guess you very rarely do this with 65 so there are literally only 6 hand combinations you continue with?! That's like 10% of your 2 barrel range at best. If it is true and you do not feel comfortable bet calling OTT you should probably just check and call down even if you hold something as strong as middle set...

        How would you feel if you folded and the villain showed you an overpair like QQ+ (entirely possible, some people play it this way) a FD with 2 overs, top 2 pair or combo draw? You are crushing all those hands and are only crushed by 77 and 88. Even if you had a super sick read that the villain is only ever raising here with the nuts you still have plenty of outs and very good implied odds to ever think of folding. You say the villain is an unknown. For me to make a hero fold like that I would need to be up against someone who is far from being unknown and I would need to be damn sure that my hand has so little equity that I should just fold it right away. The higher the stakes are the more aggressive opponents you will encounter so folding a monster like a middle set on this board cannot be a good play overall. Hero folds and hero calls should be reserved for people we know very well and can accurately say what their holding is in certain situations. As far as I am concerned I am never folding here under any circumstances unless I can see the villain's hole cards and they are exactly 88 or 99.

        I think I would bet call turn and check call probably any river unless it is a super scare card and the villain overbets the pot or something silly like that.

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        • #5
          I think you want to go with a turn shove here. There are clear hands we crush, 22, 89, to get value from, we have equity against 56, we shut out flush draws and other combination draws, and we're going to be stacked by 77/88 anyways. We are out of position so we can't control the size of the pot by calling here and we can't fold. I think we benefit the most from moving in now. We simply have too strong of a hand.

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          • #6
            Good. That's exactly what I did and he folded.

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