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25NL FR Zoom TPTK C-bet facing a raise vs Unknown

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  • 25NL FR Zoom TPTK C-bet facing a raise vs Unknown

    I don't like my C-bet sizing (should have been $2.75-ish) but I don't think it makes much difference in this case. Anyway, I believe he has QQ or JJ. Villain is an unknown as this is not my usual stakes. Thoughts anyone? iggyo
    Last edited by iggyo; Sun Jun 02, 2013, 10:36 AM. Reason: Revised Title
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  • #2
    yeah your c bet is to small, considering that it is a wet board and your hand quite vulnerable I would even c bet as high as 70% pot which would be 3,20.

    You have a little read on the villain here, he is not playing a full stack so its more likely he is a bit fishy.

    His range after his raise is wider than than QQ and JJ. Considering that he is probably a bit more likely to call 3-bets since he is not a full stack I would put him on: QQ,JJ, AQ, AJ and even KT suited sometimes as his made hands and than maybe some draws like T9 for the sraight draw and a few flush draws like 89 of spades. He should not have pure bluffs or bluffs with little equity like a gutshot in his range to often here, since the board hits your 3-betting range. I think even fishier player, which he might be, understand that, since it is pretty intuitive.

    Given that you are either way behind lots of the time vs all his made hand or your a little ahead vs his draws which he might often just call and therefore make them more unlikely to have here, I think your fold is fine.


    • #3
      thought about the your hand again. I have to correct the last point of mine, your are not way behind most the time, since you have 7 outs vs his two pairs with the Kings and the Tens and 4 outs vs his sets. So that makes its closer, but if I dont have a read on the opponent that he is always playing his draws aggressive and that he has many of them in his threebet calling range, I still think fold is best here.


      • #4
        Hi iggyo,

        Here's what I think.
        I like 3betting here with AKo OOP vs HJ; But I'd like to make it 2.5 instead of the standard 3x raise since we are OOP and I would like him to pay more to reduce our positional dis-advantage.
        The flop is not the greatest flop for us since the hands that flat a 3bet will hit this flop often. Still I'm cbetting this flop for value like 100% of the time, and yes I would lean to make a bigger bet here since our opponent seems to be more of a recreational player and might call with worse (looking at villains starting stack we notice that he does not top up, which makes me think he is more of a recreational player)
        So something like 3$ would be nice.
        When he raises our cbet I'd almost always think this is a value raise and not a semi-bluff given the assumption that he is recreational (again since he does not top up)
        So his range would look something like this: { QQ-JJ, AQs-AJs, AsTs, KcTc, KdTd, KhTh, QcJc, QdJd, QhJh, AQo-AJo }
        Against that range we have ~29% equity and the pot odds to call his raise are 25% which should justify a call OTF.

        However we still need to consider future action OTT and OTR.
        If we do call his raise, villain will have 75% pot bet remaining so I expect him to shove on a none spade, none K, none T a 100% of the time OTT. So he will be shoving turn on 35 cards (67% of the time)which we will have to fold and probably checking back 33% of the time (17 cards; spades + K + T) and we might not be able to make more money on our call.

        There are two assumptions that I would like to make here.
        1. He will shove turn on 35 cards
        2. The hand will be checked down or folded when we bet when we hit a K or T

        With that said, we will be losing our 4.54$ more 67% of the time OTT and will win our EV from calling the flop raise only 33% of the time.

        OTF: EV = (0.29 x 18.1$) - (0.71 x 4.54$) = +2.03$
        OTT: EV = (0.33 x 2.03$) - (0.67 x 4.54$) = -2.37$
        We will realize our EV OTF on further streets 33% of the time (0.33) and will have to fold - lose our 4.54$ extra 67% of the time (0.67)

        I fold.


        • #5
          Hi iggy,

          Not sure I have much to add to the already good replies here. It seems unlikely we would be getting bluff raised here, I wouldn't assume it without reads. In particular because this flop hits OUR range so hard, if villain is ranging us at all there are very few hands in our preflop 3-betting range that won't hit this flop strong. KK and light 3-bets is about it. So I suspect we are looking at JJ/QQ/AQ/AJ a ton here.
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          • #6
            Hey guys, thanks for your excellent replies. As a player who is sometimes too aggressive, I need this kind of validation for my folds in sticky spots like this.
            Last edited by iggyo; Mon Jun 03, 2013, 09:21 PM. Reason: typo
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            • #7
              As someone who has donated some at 25NL FR Zoom please allow my $.02 ... Just because villain is not full stack I would not assume = fish, slightly more likely to be fishy perhaps (there are several seemingly solid players who don't auto top off 100% at these stakes). While I would c bet larger on a wet board, given that we hold villain is slightly less likely to hold draws we wish to charge, but moreover if I was hero the flop smacks his bet call range a little harder than my 3bet range so I would not make the c bet larger, especially when we seem all agreed that bet fold is best on this flop... Given that this really isn't a great flop for our hand considering villains range, I am surprised that checking is not an option, the worse hands that he calls with likely have good equity and he maybe calling often raising with better. Bottom line I cant see AK getting three streets of value unless we improve (and some of that improving could improve calling villain), so checking flop is worthy of consideration.


              • #8
                Profess Awe, that was exactly the reasoning that was going through my head as I was contemplating whether to c-bet and how large I should make it if I did. As it turned out, I saved some money betting as small as I did because I don't think a larger bet would have changed very much.

                As mentioned, not all players who don't top-up are fish. However, I think I can say that the majority aren't very good players per se, and can be exploitable. In fact, I like to be visible in search and often play a single table on Zoom to make some players think I'm a bit of a fish (in some cases, this is true).

                Thanks for your $.02!
                Last edited by iggyo; Wed Jun 05, 2013, 02:58 AM. Reason: typo
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