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2c NL - Set of 2s vs. LAG Turn Shove

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  • 2c NL - Set of 2s vs. LAG Turn Shove

    Interesting hand I played: Both villain 2 and villain 6 were Loose-aggressive, although they differed in how they did it: villain 6 prefered to limp before the flop and then make large bets post-flop, rarely showing down a hand (except for a 7-4o he had raised with in the big blind during a blind war). Villain 2 was a standard LAG who would raise big with anything from pocket Kings to 10-7s. I had a bit of history with villain 6, but villain 2 had mostly been playing the rest of the table. I limped to setmine because I had position, and even with the raise I still called, as I thought it would be very easy for me to stack off one of the villains if I hit, giving me good implied odds. I'm not sure if my flop raise was a good idea, as good LAGs will usually fold if they face aggression and they're behind, but only villain 2 may have been a good LAG. The main problem here is the turn: the 4 of diamonds could complete villain 6's flush if he had one, and his donk-bet shove into me showed strength. I did NOT make the call immediately - I actually thought about it for 30 seconds. I eventually made the call because: 1. He was playing lots of hands 2. He was aggressive post-flop 3. He had only shown down one hand, and it was 4-7o Which made me think he was at best semi-bluffing. And even if I was wrong, I still had 10 outs to catch. Was this the correct line of thinking, or should I have laid it down?
    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Hi Christxof,

    Unless the guy was a nit I would be calling here all day without giving it too much thought because:

    1)We need about 31.5% equity to make the call
    2)The villain almost never has a bigger set than we do so even against the top of his range (which would be a flush) we still have 22% equity
    3)This means that to break even we only need to catch him bluffing or having a worse than flush hand slightly over 10%.
    4) This is 2NL, a magical land where paranormal things happen so we are not guaranteed that the villain does not actually have T high
    5) You describe the villain as a LAG. LAGs at 2NL are the worst players I have ever met (their only competition being play money LAGs) and their stack off range is behind any human comprehension

    Taking into consideration all these points my range for calling here would be as weak as TP+ (The kicker to the king depends on how weak you think his limping range is. If it includes K5 for example than any king you would limp behind is a call) and I would actually play KTo the same way at 2NL as you did postflop.


    • #3
      Hi Chris,

      Preflop looks good, and I do think the flop raise is a good idea.

      I'm not sure if my flop raise was a good idea, as good LAGs will usually fold if they face aggression and they're behind
      Amend that statement, change "they're behind" to "they have nothing". It's a very important distinction. They don't know what you have, and if they have something like KJ for instance, they don't know they're behind to a set yet.

      So in this hand, firstly, assume they are both bad LAGs at these stakes until they prove differently imo. And regarding hand strengths, V2's range is uncertain although he did raise preflop, but V6 has something. An aggressor can be bluffing, but a caller isn't. Maybe it's a weak king, maybe a 6, maybe a draw... it's something though. So I definitely like raising it up here and building the pot.

      As for the turn action, yeah, I'm never folding. I am not worried about a flush at all. It's possible, but at least some of the time he would have made a big flop raise with a flush draw, and when he calls the flop at least some of the time he would check-raise the turn instead of open shove. Over all I'd expect to see a hand like KxTd or something of that genre, or ace high with the Ad that made a terrible couple of flop calls, much more often than be behind here. I think your thought process is good.
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