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25 NL - 6max Zoom: charge draws or protect vs X/R on turn?

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  • 25 NL - 6max Zoom: charge draws or protect vs X/R on turn?

    Hi, villain is a 19/15 reg (360 hands) with AG of 3,3 Fold to 3bet 25% and 4 bet 50% over 8 opportunities. first thought was to bet the turn to get value from Jx and some strengthend draws, mainly turned FDs. But given that he is an aggressive reg and the board is pretty scary I thought he is kind of likely to X/R his draws and maybe even combo hands like TJ and I dont think calling a turn shove is an option. Another plus for checking back the turn is that he is likely to bluff the river with any two cards that have no showdown value. Disadvantages are we miss out on value vs his draws of course but only if he decides to call them on the turn. As a follow up question I would like to know if you guys would call any river card after checking back the flop if he bets a decent size (eg 60% pot) on the river? Oh and by the way: Preflop sizing of me was a bit small, would have preferred 1,75 in retrospect.
    Last edited by almigthybald; Wed May 29, 2013, 03:08 PM. Reason: corrected VPIP stat

  • #2
    You are in position, so if you get called on flop is because maybe he thinks you are playing that advantage or he's trapping you.
    On turn he checks, that can be a strong hand, hopping that you bet again to continue to trap you. I will bet the turn about 2/3 of the pot. If get called is predictable that he has very strong hand. If get raised, can mean a bluff, but can be a strong hand also, since you have a much larger stack the bluff is less frequent I think.
    On the river I will check trying a showdown without invest more, because in this situation for many times a pair isn't enough. If the turn card doesn't help to complete draw, I will call, unless a all-in move or very large bet (bigger than pot size).


    • #3
      Hey SirSixty,

      My default line on this turn against an aggro reg would be to just check it back for pot control and bluff-catch a reasonable bet on the river.
      On this turn, we could easily get check-raised/blown off the best hand by combo draws like 8Tcc,78cc, JT. Even though I am not sure he calls those sort of connectors OOP against 3-bets. Or he might even do it with a hand like TT turning it into a semi-bluff.

      Btw, as far as the 3bet sizing is concerned, I don't mind it being a bit small. If he likes playing 3bet pots OOP without the initiative, let him call lightly. We don't want him out of the pot under those circumstances.
      If we were the player OOP, then for sure I would go something like 2-2.25$. In position, it is fine to go smaller.


      • #4
        I like bet/folding the turn as well. I think there are enough second best hands from which we can get value. Hands like T8, JT, TT especially, but also more obscure 8X like 87 and A8 or QJ. If villain check-raises I would assign them a range of 9X+, meaning T9-A9, QT, T7 (unlikely), and full houses like JJ/88/89/J9. So if we bet, I think we can agree, we should make an easy fold if check-raised. Our T is unlikely to be an out any significant portion of the time. I think checking is not going to be that great of an option. This idea that he will bluff hands that don't have showdown value, since he has AF north of 3, is true. What's not true is him being likely to hold any of these hands now that the turn has come a jack. Hands like JT have showdown value as does QJ. We shouldn't expect them to value cut themselves with a bet and we shouldn't expect him to have many bluffs like 55, not enough for us to call a river bet. So I don't think we are going to benefit much from letting a card come off. Whatever we might be able to value bet on the river we can value bet just as well, or better, now. Those hands that have us beat are likely to let us know and then we can make a decision about the value of our hand in position on the river should villain check and call our turn bet. umbup:



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