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25NL - BvB facing turn c/r

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  • 25NL - BvB facing turn c/r

    Hi PSO-ers, Villain 17/14/inf (72 Hands) Steal 43% - SB steal 60% (5) Flop: I like to call here and see a turn card I think if we raise here he will continue with hands that we cannot play a big pot with and he will shove with hands that beat us and QJ which we only have 30% equity against. Turn: I was thinking of checking back this turn but I decided to bet to not give AJ/AQ/JT/QT etc. a free card When he c/r and to this size I think this looks super strong and it can only be QJ. But then why not bet himself and risk a check back instead? Fold? or Call and fold unimproved OTR if he bets or check back river?

  • #2

    Why would he go for a check raise OTT when the board offers so many possible draws? I think the answer is that he almost always has QJ or a draw himself. His SB steal is quite high from the small sample you have so I might just call him down b vs b. If you are giving up here with a hand as strong as TPGK + GS I would check raise you all day with every draw possible.

    A question for our hand analysers: Can we 3bet this hand for value against someone who steals from SB more than 40% or is it better to flat and play a pot in position?

    Attached Files


    • #3
      Hi guys

      Tough spot. I'd probably fold here as the villain is tight and turn check raises represent strength. He can bluff here as he'll expect you to float but i fully expect him to double barrel draws over check raising them so that inclines me to wieght his range towards made hands such as sets, 2 pair and straights. If you've seen him take this line with a bluff then you can call down and check down OTR if he gives up. However without a read there's no reason to leave ourselves guessing with a one pair hand.

      FWIW Tommy I like flat calling preflop, if we 3bet we will fold out a tonne of worse hands. We have postion and will be able to play well postflop with the high SPR.
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      • #4
        Preflop we definitely have the choice to three-bet preflop for value depending on how our opponent four-bets. If they four-bet a ton of hands we can always five-bet or call the four-bet. But that's very unlikely. More likely if they four-bet a good range, then we're going to be folding to much to the four-bet, so three-betting becomes problematic. On the turn I think we have a clear situation where our continuing range should be dictated by the rule of continuing often versus small sizings and continuing infrequently versus large sizings. This is a large check-raise on the turn. So I think when we can easily have QJ ourselves as well as some hands like K9/T9/KT, we should make first priority to continue with those hands versus this big sizing. I think this is a pretty value heavy check-raise, but because our opponent is opening so wide in these positions, we should have skepticism. If we think his range to do this for value is only QJ, then that's only 12 combinations in a sea of 60% steal. We should still bet/fold, but when we have KT in our turn betting range, that's a hand I am bet/calling with and I wouldn't be so keen to fold the river even facing another huge shell umbup:



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