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25NL 6-Max Folding? (VI)

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  • 25NL 6-Max Folding? (VI)

    Villain's 43/30, AF 1.6 over 105 hands. Flop FCB 57%(14), Turn FCB: 0%(4) Previously had a hand where he called my cbet 2 streets with bottom pair 43o on monoflop, turned flush draw, river hit the weak flush and we both checked. Won my set 77. My plan was to bet 3 streets for value with top 2 since his range is wide. He may call down with Kx or even Jx. When he raises OTR, should we find a Fold BTN in case of a slowplayed set or backdoor flush? But on the other hand, we're getting good pot odds of 5.16:1 (16%).

  • #2
    Hey Awesome,

    To start off, I think this is kind of a loose open from UTG or MP. I would only raise this hand if it were suited or if the table is playing tight and we have a chance to pick up the blinds. That is my personal preference, perhaps I might be playing too tight from EP.

    Flop and Turn look okay.
    There are not too many sets in his range except 88 (we have blockers to JJ and KK that would 3bet preflop) which I think would raise flop because it is somewhat coordinated.
    I think what we are looking at here is a runner runner flush where he peeled flop with a draw like QsTs, Qs9s, and called turn with FD. I think our relative hand strength goes down a lot when he takes that line; With his AF I think we might be beat here BUT we have already invested ~60% of our stack so we are way beyond commitment threshold and we might have to pay off hoping he is turning a busted draw into a bluff or misplayed J8/K8.

    An alternative line that I like to take sometimes is to check/call river to give missed draws a chance to bluff at the pot.

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    • #3
      Although UTG KJo can be a little loose the fact we're 5 handed compensates imo so I'm defo opening here. I play it very similar to you, however with your read that he is a passive calling station I would bet both streets bigger to set up a shove OTR. He can have a hit a backdoor flush but if he has, oh well, he'll call with Kx, J8 so getting a lot of money in on the river will be profitable imo.

      Originally posted by geoVARTA View Post
      An alternative line that I like to take sometimes is to check/call river to give missed draws a chance to bluff at the pot.
      The villain hasn't given us any reason to think he will bluff a draw, in fact I suspect he will check back most rivers given the chance since he looks to be a calling station. Against this villain type I go for lines that give us max value.
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      • #4
        Hi TANW,

        I'm not folding vs. a wacko like this. If he's got the back door flush or pocket 5's, nh. He can just as easily show us 85 or K5. Whenever I'm near the top of my range vs an unpredictable wacko, and the board runs out fairly benign (save for the back door flush), I'm not folding getting a great price.
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        • #5
          Can't remember when's the last time Dave labeled someone as wacko lol. Glad everyone agrees that we should go for max value given the previous read that he'll call down lightly. I called and he turned over AsJs. Just running bad I guess.

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