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Luck is not important

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  • Luck is not important

    Ok i know the preflop wasnt the best play, but if im sure Ill win about 100+BB(and I was about 90%) if i hit a straight, is it OK to call 4.5 BB bet? And I want to know if my flop re-raise was too weak(actually, I was hoping hes got a set, AA or KK, but afraiding of A7c, AKc, AQc). Sorry for my bad English.

  • #2
    Limping this hand in fairly early position does not have a positive expectation. To be honest, I wouldn't even call on the button in a family pot with this hand. It's definitely not a good idea to call a raise to 9c when the action comes back round to you, as you'll have implied odds of about 20 to 1, but I can't see you winning more than 100bb if you call this raise 20 times. Most of the time, you'll have a gutshot or one lousy pair, and it will cost you more money to see if you improve. To win a whole stack, not only will you need to flop a monster. You'll also need villain to stack off on a scary board. AA is probably not paying you off if the flop comes 996 or 875.

    96o just won't make the nuts anywhere near often enough for you to break even, let alone make a profit. It's a dangerous hand to play, because if you happen to make a straight, someone is likely to make a better straight in a multiway pot. Or you'll make trips, and someone will make a boat.

    I've just posted a blog about calling pre-flop with speculative hands. 96o is not among them. You'll do better in the long run if you stick with playable hands in playable positions.

    As played, I'd be stacking off on the flop, because you have the nuts, and the best hand villain can have, given his actions, is 88. It's pretty bad for him to get it in with TT in this spot, as you're repping a set or top two pairs. It seems the "poker gods" decided to punish you here. I bet you won't be calling raises with 96o again for a while!
    Bracelet Winner

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