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Can I get value on this river?

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  • Can I get value on this river?

    Unknown villain.
    • Is c-betting this = mistake?Since we get really marginal value(lower aces) and no better hands would fold.
    • Would you reraise this river?
    Thanks in advance

  • #2
    Hi morduk,

    I do like c-betting the flop here. While it's hard to get value from worse and better hands won't fold much, a lot of his flop calling range will be marginal 1 pair hands like small pockets... so by betting we are setting him up to fold those hands on later streets. We improve with an A or Q obviously, but can barrel a K or J as well as they improve our equity AND will be scary to most of his flop calling range. And the worse hands he folds to a flop c-bet it's ok, as he can turn good equity if we give him a free card. Like Js9s will probably fold to our bet, but with a free card can hit a lot of turn cards in some way that gives it tangible equity.

    The river spot is close imo. Given the villain is playing an odd non-full stack and is probably a weaker player, I would go for a thin value raise. This is because with the smaller bet sizing he's made (blocking bet), players will sometimes convince themselves they've forced us to "make a move" and call down with just a ten, as well as any ace. Also, I only expect to get raised if beat, so I like .35c and fold to a reraise if he comes back over the top of it.
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