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Hmmmm, what do you think?

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  • Hmmmm, what do you think?

    Hi guys, can I have your opinions please. I think I'm correct in saying that my EV in 'G Bucks' means I should have called, however I chose not to, and although, according to 'G Bucks' I was wrong, I still think I was correct in this situation.

    How I saw the hand, Pre flop - I was undecided whether to call the villain or not, but with the fish in I thought i'd look at the flop and see if I could hit big.

    When the flop comes, the villain Cbets and I think my 2 pr is ahead at this stage. I have him down for maybe AK, AQ, possibly pocket K's. Possibly I should have re-raised here? but my intention was to re-raise on the turn, if he bet and no heart showed.

    He bets the turn and I am a little concerned he may have hit the flush, although I still think he may barrel this and check turn if he has AK, so I'm still thinking I'm probably ahead.

    When the river comes and it pairs the board I get a bit twitchy and want to check it down. He bets and I fold. The reason I folded is, I can't see him triple barrelling that board without at least having the flush, maybe I read his hand totally wrong and he made the boat, or maybe he did have AK and was just overly aggro...

    My stats at the time were VPIP 22, PFR 18, 3bet 6
    Fold to flop Cbet 44%
    Fold to turn Cbet 17%
    Fold to river Cbet 50%

    Villain stats at the time were VPIP 15, PFR 12 3bet 3
    Flop Cbet 50%
    Turn Cbet 30%
    River Cbet 0%

    His RFI from MP was 8%

    P4 was fishy VPIP 37 PFR 9 3bet 0, although he isn't involved too much.

    Hold'em No Limit (€0.05/€0.10 EUR)

    Table 'Sorga' 6-max Seat #5 is the button

    Seat 1: p1 (€10.37 in chips)
    Seat 2: p2 (€6.20 in chips)
    Seat 3: villain (€10.65 in chips)
    Seat 4: p4 (€12.89 in chips)
    Seat 5: hero (€19.54 in chips)

    p1: posts small blind €0.05
    p2: posts big blind €0.10

    *** HOLE CARDS ***
    Dealt to hero [Jd Ac]

    villain: raises €0.20 to €0.30
    p4: calls €0.30
    hero: calls €0.30
    p1: folds
    p2: calls €0.20

    *** FLOP *** [7h Ah Jc]

    p2: checks
    villain: bets €0.75
    p4: folds
    hero: calls €0.75
    p2: folds

    *** TURN *** [7h Ah Jc] [9h]

    villain: bets €1.90
    hero: calls €1.90

    *** RIVER *** [7h Ah Jc 9h] [9s]

    villain: bets €5
    hero: folds [Jd Ac]

    Uncalled bet (€5) returned to villain
    villain collected €6.26 from pot

  • #2
    It's a tough decision. Your opponent is showing lot of strength, he can have AK, AKs, AQ, AQs, 77 and even 99. You only beat two of these hand if the suited card are hearts and 4 if not. Probably I will fold this one too.


    • #3
      Hi rivered,

      I think one of the key things you have to work on is ranging your opponents. You're doing so but it needs work in that 1) you're ranging fairly narrow and not considering a full range of possibilities, and 2) you're not consistent from street to street. For example, in this hand on the flop you state you have him on AK, AQ, or maybe KK. Then on the river you are sure he must have a flush... but you have no flush draws in his range on the flop which, if true, means he can never have a flush on the river.

      So ranging on the flop, He opens preflop from UTG and is pretty TAG/nitty at 15/12 over all, so I expect this to be a tight opening range. Mostly big aces and pairs. Since the ace of hearts is on the board, this eliminates most flush combos from his range completely. About the only one I would expect he could show up with is KhQh. Maybe KhJh and QhJh. Other hands in his range would be AJ-A9, AA, JJ, QQ, TT, maybe some smaller pairs.

      I would raise him directly on the flop... we are ahead of almost his entire range here and there are a lot of turn cards that will scare a nit holding AK or AQ on this board (the primary hands that will give us action).

      Turn I would also raise, if he's got the Kh or Qh he will call, I think we are losing value not raising here as well. If he reraises we can fold.

      River does stink, he bets really big and this is an indicator of a really strong hand especially from a nitty guy. Given our passive play through out, he has no reason to think AK isn't good, but none the less this bet is uncharacteristic of AK held by a conservative player. I think folding is ok here but would call if I thought he'd bet AK/AQ on the river like this.
      Head Live Trainer
      Check out my Videos

      4 Time Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Thanks for the feedback guys. Yeah I think you're obviously right in your assessment that I need to work on ranging my opponent better. Both of you would have seen them lower pocket being in his range preflop, by the sounds of it, something I didn't from the outset...

        To be honest when I said AK,AQ,KK, that was what I was thinking after that flop, I was sure he/she was strong preflop and that was why I wasn't sure about my call preflop.

        From one previous hand where the villain had a flush draw on the flop, he/she didn't play it aggressively, although that was only one hand and different circumstances, I kind of discounted the flush draw on the flop (bad move I can see). I was thinking he/she must have a made hand already. However it didn't enter my thought process about the lower pocket pairs until the final 9 hit and he made that bet. Guess I didn't really think of them being in his range off the top of my head (should have used my equilab, lesson learnt).

        Langolier, when you said you would reraise on the flop, how would you have played the river had the villain called the reraise and the heart came on the turn? Would you have checked if he/she gave you the opportunity, or would you have fired another shot?

        Thanks again guys for the tips, could someone confirm whether I had correctly figured that the 'G Bucks' would have said call?

        And if anyone has any tips to help me with my ranging, thy would be gratefully received. I guess a lot of it is just keep equilab open and that isn't it?


        • #5
          I would continue to bet the turn if he calls my flop raise. I expect AK/AQ to give me action, especially if he's got the K or Q of hearts.
          Head Live Trainer
          Check out my Videos

          4 Time Bracelet Winner



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