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25nl - AKs, good or bad triple barrel spot?

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  • 25nl - AKs, good or bad triple barrel spot?

    The villain has been at the table for around 40 hands and has been playing Taggish stats but is probably exhibiting slightly more passive tendencies, although I've yet to see a SD. The villain is playing 24/20 AF 1.0. I have a LAG table image already however I'm unsure if villain will use this knowledge to their advantage. I 3bet preflop for value and to gain initiative and decided to make a standard cbet as I have a gutshot + 2 overs as well as the opportunity to barrel spades if they hit the turn. Also I have decent equity against his 3bet calling range. Villain calls the cbet and bingo spades come, I load up my gun and fire a nice big bullet into him. I am going to check call any non spade A, K or Q river and check fold any other card. Well that was my plan until he goes into the tank for about 20 seconds before calling. At this point I think he has a weak pair+draw and was figuring out if he was priced in or not. Or deciding whether I was bluffing. Anyway I figure it's the opportune moment to move him off his pair when the river bricks and go for the triple barrel bluff with my A high, was this foolish or does the board runout and his actions make this play +EV? I realise we shouldn't be doing this against unknowns but it seemed a good time to fire especially when he tanked the turn. Thanks Oli
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  • #2
    Hey Oliver Which better hands, exactly, do you want him to fold on the river? Be specific. I'll wait for your next post umbup:

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    • #3
      I think a x/f on the turn would suffice, because the 5d doesn't really change the board texture, but however just enhances it, and if he's calling flop he's calling your turn bet most of the times.

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      • #4
        Originally posted by GarethC23 View Post
        Hey Oliver Which better hands, exactly, do you want him to fold on the river? Be specific. I'll wait for your next post umbup:
        Lol. A quaint way of answering my question but effective. Now I think about it very few hands fold, possibly AsQx or AJ, maybe QQ but he probably re-raises the flop with that. So, very few hands fold. That being said is the turn barrel okay?
        Last edited by Croyd93; Wed May 15, 2013, 03:30 PM.
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        • #5
          Also is it possible he folds stuff like 9s9x/8s8x OTR?
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          • #6
            Hey Oliver

            Maybe quaint, but just want to get you thinking in the best way to improve . I could auto-pilot my analysis if you want . I think ever getting AJ or QQ to fold the river is super ambitious and that these type of hands (namely JX) are a lot of his river range that beat you. I think 88/99 folds the flop a lot and if it doesn't its only 6 combinations of 88/99 with a spade that makes it to this river, so those combos are very dilute and protected by flushes, full houses, and top pairs that will call. I think we beat some of his hands like AsQ and KQ so if we check we win versus those some amount of the time. On the other hand I don't think they are enough of his range to make shoving profitable. I am not sure about the turn bet in all honesty. I would guess that its not as good as checking at this level. I should know since 25nl is my bread and butter. I wouldn't bet this turn in game -- my logic right now is that if we bet this turn we have to shove river to get 1 spade hands to fold and I just don't think we have enough combined fold equity and we certainly can't value shove an A so effectively or even a K or Q (like, we should value shove a Q but we aren't always good) so I thnk the merit of betting turn just goes down esp on a non-fold equity board pairing card like this one.

            Gareth

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            • #7
              Wouldnt it been a massive leak to stack off with just TPTK on that board? i could fold AA on the turn i might of raised his bet on the turn with over pairs if he was a lag but stacking off with just 1 pair seems like a leak to me?

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              • #8
                Question for you Croyd

                You say "playing Taggish stats" and "playing 24/20 AF 1.0"
                How can he be aggressive and have only an AF of 1.0?
                If he's tight and keeps calling, doesn't it mean that he's GOT something?
                So why would you keep spewing your chips?

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                • #9
                  Thanks for the feedback Gareth, in hindsight it's easy to follow your logic but after making the mistake of betting the turn I felt I had to commit to 3 barrels. It's not so easy to stop yourself once you get it in your mind they're weak. The reason I originally barrelled the turn is because I believed spades bought an increase of fold equity, however I didn't think that it being a board pairing card lowered fold equity. Is this simply because his pairs are less likely to fold due to no more overcards hitting?

                  After reading your post I agree that the turn is a check out of interest what turn cards would you be firing the second barrel on?

                  Personally I'd be firing any A/K/Q, but this is for value. I'm not actually sure if they're any good cards to be barrelling the turn as a bluff on. Perhaps the 9s/8s/7s?

                  Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                  Question for you Croyd

                  You say "playing Taggish stats" and "playing 24/20 AF 1.0"
                  How can he be aggressive and have only an AF of 1.0?
                  If he's tight and keeps calling, doesn't it mean that he's GOT something?
                  So why would you keep spewing your chips?
                  Hi Trap,

                  This is why I included my observation that he was exhibiting some passive tendancies, I merely used the word 'taggish' as his VPIP/PFR fell into a somewhat tight range. As for your second question, well, I think my essay to Gareth explains a little but I shall try to expand. In general I find it difficult to slow down, I've never been one to nit it up. Instead I've always had a my inner LAG fight to get out. I once tried bluffing some with 92s at 2nl! I love spewing chips it sure is fun and it definately teaches me where I'm going wrong far quicker than check-folding does. I guess I just find it hard to stop being aggressive, it's just part of my wild personaility! :P
                  Last edited by Croyd93; Wed May 15, 2013, 09:55 PM.
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                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Croyd93 View Post
                    I guess I just find it hard to stop being aggressive, it's just part of my wild personaility! :P
                    LOL... I'm completely the opposite, I'd like to me more aggressive, but I can't get rid of my nitty player...lol umbup:

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