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can i fold qq here?

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  • can i fold qq here?

    this guys is verry tight he is playing 6/5 and 3 bets 2.6% over 400 hands
    Preflop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
    UTG+1 folds, UTG+2 raises to $0.05, MP1 folds, MP2 raises to $0.16, 2 folds, Hero calls $0.16, 2 folds, UTG+2 calls $0.11

    Flop: ($0.51) 6 3 7 (3 players)
    UTG+2 checks, MP2 bets $0.36, Hero calls $0.36, UTG+2 folds

    Turn: ($1.23) 9 (2 players)
    MP2 bets $0.88, Hero raises to $1.76, MP2 calls $0.88 and is all-in

    River: ($4.75) 9 (2 players, 1 is all-in)

    Results: $4.75 pot ($0.17 rake)
    Final Board: 6 3 7 9 9
    Hero showed Q Q and lost (-$2.28 net)
    MP2 showed K K and won $4.58 ($2.30 net)

    i think i should have folded on the flop here i think he has as worst jj en that beats me aswell and myabe qq but the chances of that are just so slim
    Triple Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Hi ad,

    Yes I think you should fold against a nit all day long.

    Preflop call is ok, but only if we play it well post flop... we are getting 14-1 implied odds and may get his stack if we flop a set since he will often have KK or AA here. His stats are super nitty, and 3-betting an EP open I expect his 3b range to be even tighter than the over all average of 2.6%... this is probably only QQ+ tbh. Maybe AKs and maybe JJ, but nits will at least some times just call an EP raise with those. If the OR comes back over the top and the nit shoves, it is a super easy fold with QQ. On balance, folding directly preflop isn't bad here given the situation. If you are not going to be able to get away from small card flops then folding >> calling pre.

    Folding when we don't flop a Q would be ok as well. One might make the argument that we can call to float the flop, and I think that's reasonable to an extent with the understanding that:

    -If he has AKs or JJ, he WILL slow down and check the turn once called. This is true for most nits.

    -If an ace turns and he checks, we can bet and likely get him off KK (I would plan to fire 2 shells for this)

    -We can get lucky and turn a Q.

    Over all this isn't much of a plan as AKs and JJ aren't heavy in his range, and an A or Q falling aren't likely, so folding directly on the flop is probably optimal.

    As played I would fold to the big turn barrel 100% of the time from this player.
    Head Live Trainer
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    4 Time Bracelet Winner



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