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25NL - c/shove turn oppportunity?

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  • 25NL - c/shove turn oppportunity?

    Hi guys, I was wondering whether this would be a good opportunity for a turn check-shove after my flop donk bet gets raised. Villain 11/7/2 (27 Hands) Steal 22% CO PFR 17% Can't say too much about villain with that sample size, but he does look to be on the tighter side. I donk bet because I felt that this is a kind of flop that he would check behind and at the same time we have TP + gutshot + BDFD When he raises OTF I put him on sets, overpairs, and probably AJ. I guess he could have JT also for 2pair. Not sure if Q9 would be in his range. He could be raising with KQ or 99 for a semi-bluff, but I think these would call more often than raise. I call and the turn comes the Ad now against a range of: { TT+, 88, AJs, JTs, AJo, JTo } we have 35% equity which justifies a call as his bet OTT is giving us slightly over 2.5:1 BUT if we do call then we have to x/f when we miss OTR and if he checks behind our hand will not win that often, so do you see any fold equity to justify a x/shove OTT instead?

  • #2
    Is that the sort of move you do up there with mid pair that takes some bollux to shove that hand even with the draw


    • #3
      I don't like donking the flop here, there aren't many bad turn cards for you as you hold a Q so even the worst turn cards will often give you a lot of equity. If it checks through you can often bet for value. As played I just call the turn I don't think you have any fold equity against his turn betting range (AA,JJ-TT,88,AJs,KQs,JTs,AJo,KQo,JTo) so call and look to scoop the pot when you hit a straight or flush.
      Last edited by Croyd93; Thu May 09, 2013, 01:51 PM.
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      • #4
        Hi Geo,

        If you want to estimate fold equity apply combinatorics to your ranging. On the surface my gut says there's not much, but lets look at the range you're assigning:

        { TT+, 88, AJs, JTs, AJo, JTo }

        I will start by saying I don't like that you forgot to put KQ in his range after mentioning it specifically that it might raise as a semi-bluff, which I agree it might, so I think we should add it here as well

        KK (6 combos)
        QQ (3 combos)
        Note: It is possible none of these combos exist to bet/fold to a check/shove by you... KK may check back the turn for example, and QQ has a double gutter and may bet/call or check back to take a free card.

        AA (3 combos)
        JJ (1 combo)
        TT (3 combos)
        88 (3 combos)
        AJ (6 combos)
        JT (6 combos)
        KQ (12 combos)

        So he is folding to a check-raise jam at best 9/43 = 21% of the time, and at worst, 0%.

        I would call here. The direct odds are right, plus there is some implied odds. You may not get paid if you make a straight, but the flush is back door so you will probably get paid on a small diamond river as he'll be naturally suspicious. And you could potentially bluff shove the 3 non-diamond 7's as you holding a 9 is totally credible the way this hand has played out. If the river is a blank, then yes you have to check/fold. So what? You don't have ot win every pot you play. We can profitably call the turn bet and that's better than stacking ourselves off bad any day.
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        • #5
          Thanks Dave, I figure against this kind of player we might not find the right fold equity since his range is tight but would you consider a c/shove line against someone that is looser and more aggressive perhaps or you like to stick to the default line?


          • #6
            How much looser and more aggressive?

            I would suggest applying the same logic. It will be a more tedious task as the combos are so much more, but it could be worth the effort. Also keep in mind the more wild you make the opponent check/shoving may not be optimal any more. Like against an insane maniac who has a massive number of air combos relative to anything else, check-calling and allowing him to bluff off becomes better than check-shoving him off all his air that we beat anyway.
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