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16NL 6-Max Unraised Pot Flat or Raise?

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  • 16NL 6-Max Unraised Pot Flat or Raise?

    Villain's 26/11, AF 3.1 over 372 hands. BTN Stl: 23%(39), Flop FCB: 42%(19), Flop Raise CB: 25%(12) Seen him around these couple of days but no other notes on him. PF I flat his limp as I thought that raising and cbetting will not work on him. We bet 3 streets, shown great strength and he raised the River. I see 4x, TT, 22, backdoor flushes, maybe raising here. So what's more +EV for us- flatting/ raising and calling a jam/ jamming? Guess the question is also if we raise, can , backdoor flushes call.

  • #2
    Hey TANW,

    Good to see u back in action. Long time no see in the forum

    As played, the range I 'd put him on is:
    4x, most probably
    , might think he can go for some thin value
    22, quad ducks is possible but not probable
    missed flush draw (rarely; difficult for someone to call a turn bet with it)

    Notice that I have not included TT due to the fact that he 'd most prolly raise it pre (knows he have a raise btn).

    If we assume the general frequency of his holding is: 4x 70%, 20%, 22 5%, MFD 5%
    I 'd go for a simple flat call, not because I think that we r losing to his holding but I simply think that a raise just donates money to PS in the form of rake....

    p.s. the above analysis was based on the fact that he's not an absolute monkey and he ranges us in some sort of way


    • #3

      His stats + open limping the button indicate he's pretty bad, so I'd lean towards raising here. It's quite possible he's got some random ten or back door clubs and is just being foolish, but since we basically have close to the nuts here I like giving a bad player a chance to make a big mistake. I do think he'll pay off with a 2, and could be bad enough to pay off with clubs, so go for it imo.
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      • #4
        I would of raised him on the river he might have 10s but he would of raised them pre so i doubt it only thing i would be scared of is if he limped pocket 2s, its like when you got the best full house possible you get it all in you cant be getting scared of quads.


        • #5
          Heys all thanks for your inputs!

          @f1n: Great to see you again! Been busy so haven't been grinding much. How's 50NL going?

          @Dave and mike: Yea I was contemplating whether to raise since we beat almost every hand. Guess it's +EV to do so against this player in the long run. Makes sense that we have FH and shouldn't be afraid of quads.

          Actual hand I opted to flat because on the spot, I didn't think that any worse than 4x will call. Also with the rake issue, it's either we split or I get shown better. I was afraid of TT too. He showed up with 22 though.



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