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NL2 Bad beat or bad play ?

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  • NL2 Bad beat or bad play ?

    Hi there

    So this is the hand I wish to discuss

    Is it a bad beat or a bad play from my part ?
    I usually play very tight, slow and stady as I like to think of it. But on this hand, although I usually get respect from other players, something went wrong.
    I do a standard 4-bet with position and pocket AA, cand get one caller.
    At this stage I'm thinking he must have also some sort of pocket pairs since he raised UTG, but I also noticed he was playing rather loose, so after the dry flop he bets almost the flop, which for me is kinda bad news since I already put him under a pocket pair and now I'm thinking he hit a set. But I decide to go on my instinct knewing he is a loose player, and I make a reraise. On the turn I decide to go all in, since he checked, either he folds, or he has something. And that's when I see the bad news.

    My question here is: Is this a bad beat or just bad play on my part ? Calling a 4-bet with 9 10 off is kinda wird in my mind, but it may also make it look like a set which then would make me the bad player.

    So, any suggestions ?

  • #2
    It's definitely a bad beat, because you were way ahead when you raised pre-flop and raised the flop, but I think you can improve your bet-sizing.

    Pre-flop, a typical 3-bet size would be 3 times the size of the first raise (18c, like you made it), but that's when there haven't been any callers. When the action reaches you on the button, there's already 17c in the middle. A good size would be to add the size of the pot on to villain's open. So I'd make it about 25c. Another reason to choose this size is that - as you noted - villain raised UTG. You want to make a bigger raise, so you can stack off vs QQ+ and AK at the earliest opportunity. Another reason to make a bigger raise is that you said villain is loose. If he's likely to call, then get MORE value pre-flop, because he might not give you any money post-flop when his weak range flops a weak pair or total air.
    If you make it 25c and get called, there will be around 60c in the pot on the flop, and you'll only have about double that remaining. This means the stack to pot ratio will be about 2:1, meaning you're committed to stacking off and there are no tough decisions.
    (Generally speaking, in 3-bet pots with 100bb effective, it's standard to get your money in on the flop with TPTK or an overpair. Villain will be similarly pot-committed if he has QQ and the flop comes Jxx).

    As played, you flop your overpair on Q86, and villain donks out for 2/3 of pot. You made a minraise, presumably because you think you have the best hand, but look at how much that leaves behind. Your remaining stack is tiny in comparison to the size of the pot. The minraise also gives villain great pot odds to call if he has a hand a draw. Admittedly the only real draw is a double belly-buster (8 outs) for T9, but if villain has that hand, you want to get all his money while he's drawing, because most of the time he'll miss.
    Since a normal 3x raise of close to pot will be almost your whole stack, you should go directly all in on the flop. It's a value shove. Villain is just as committed to calling with his draw, as you are with your overpair, but he'd still be making a mistake by calling the big raise, as he won't have the right price.

    Hope this helps!
    Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Thank you very much for the analysis. I'll try next time to raise as you recommended. umbup:



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