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16NL 6-Max River Thin Value?

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  • 16NL 6-Max River Thin Value?

    Villain's 45/8, AF 4.7 over 193 hands. Flop FCB: 88%(8), Donkbet: 69%(26), Donkbet-Fold: 60%(5), Turn FCB: 0%(1), Turn donkbet: 40%(6) Basically he's aggro postflop, there was a hand previously where he called my PFR and donkbet me 2 streets with air Q2s. Had seen him donkbet with top and second pair too. So here I cbet 2 streets for value from Ax, Qx and Flush Draw hands which are possible in his wide limp-calling range. OTR I was struggling whether to bet. But because he checked here (I thought that if he had a Q, he would have donked), I hoped to get value from Ax, thus made the thin value bet. Plan was bet-fold. Reasonable river line or too thin against this not the usual calling station, but aggro Villain type?

  • #2
    Hi TANW,

    I think bet/fold is fine vs. this villain. He's folded to a flop c-bet 7/8 times and donked 18/26 times, and here he's check-calling, the only hand that makes any sense for this is a weak ace, something with showdown value but little chance to actually improve. I have to say "makes any sense" with a big grain of salt as a 45/8 villain I'd expect will be doing plenty of things that don't make good poker sense.

    An interesting alternate line vs. this type of villain would be to bet small/call. I might go for this line if I thought he'd play flush draws passively here and an ace aggressively... that would weight his range to busted draws and this looks like the type of player that might not be able to resist bluff jamming over a small bet.

    On balance though just value bet A-rags here imo.
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    • #3
      Thanks Dave, on the spot I just wasn't sure if betting was optimal here. I'll try bet small/call next time, sounds good So as played I bet-folded, it just screams Qx here.



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