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10NL 6max Zoom #3 - bluff the river?

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  • 10NL 6max Zoom #3 - bluff the river?

    #3 Only have 70 hands on the villain so the stats are not that reliable but he seems to be playing pretty tight with 16/14 preflop, 100% flop cbet (out of 3 times), 0% turn cbet (out of 1 time) and so far he used 2/3 opportunities to steal from SB. I decided to float him on the flop with a GS and 2 overs and tried to take down the pot on the turn. He check calls and checks he river. This obviously does not show a ton of strength so do you think that another stab on the river is a profitable play? The problem is that I cannot really define his range here and have no idea what hand he might cbet and then check call the turn?? For me the only reasonable hand seems to be stubborn AK high or 33,44,55 and all those hands should fold to a river bet?

  • #2
    I think this is one of those spots where we have to fire river after we bet turn.
    You could have checked back turn instead and bet river if he checks again.

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    • #3
      Hi Tommy,

      I think when he check/calls the turn the only hands he does this with are showdown value hands, probably the bottom of that range being big aces, and a lot of pairs. Blind v blind he can easily have a weak 7, 44, etc. The profitability of bluffing here is probably marginal... he may release ace high or an underpair to a decent sized bet, but blind v blind is probably the most likely place to get looked up light, especially when all flopped draws miss. Since ten high has no showdown value I think it's fine to try, but it's thin blind v blind.
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