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10NL - 140bb Overpair + OESD + BDFD facing flop aggression on wet board

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  • 10NL - 140bb Overpair + OESD + BDFD facing flop aggression on wet board

    Villain 20/17/3 (55 Hands) - that's all I have Would you re-raise flop and be willing to get it in? or would you take the line I took? If so are we folding river? We are 140bb deep too... First of all, although its just 55 hands this guys stats look descent and he just called my UTG open and when I cbet a flop like that, I think he should know I mean business and my perceived range would be exactly what it is: overpairs, sets, FD/SD so his raise there should be super strong since we are not going away with that perceived range right? So I don't think his raise here is a bluff so could be 2p+, FD/SD It's also less likely that he has the nut straight since we are holding two Jacks which leaves him with 9 combinations of QJ So we got 40% Equity against { TT-88, AsQs, KsQs, QcJc, QhJh, JcTc, JdTd, JhTh, T9s, 98s, 76s, AcJd, AcJh, AdJc, AdJh, AhJc, AhJd, AsJc, AsJd, AsJh, QcJd, QcJh, QdJc, QdJh, QhJc, QsJc, QsJh }

  • #2
    Hey Geo I don't mind folding the turn here. Actually there are a lot of different ways to play this spot against a reg who has the playing style described. You could check-call the flop for instance. This protects yourself at this stack depth from a raise which is quite difficult to handle. Also your equity is robust and you can play this hand well out of position. What do I mean by that? If you opponent bets flop and checks turn, you will often have a slam dunk river value bet. If your opponent goes bet bet you usually have an easy call call to make a river decision, with a good chance that your hand improves as well. One thing to think about is that, by not betting flop, are you sacrificing your ability to get three streets of value? I don't think you are since this isn't going to be an easy spot to get three streets of value. On most board run outs here your go to value line is going to be bet bet check-call or bet bet check-fold. This is all conditional on the stack depth, being oop, and being against a reg whose one pair combinations are limited when contrasted with say some 40/35 fish who cold calls A9o in this preflop position for example. Some ideas. I think check-fold the turn is best though. umbup:

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    • #3
      Hey Gareth,

      I like the c/c flop line for two reasons:

      1. It's a board that I would not usually cbet here with AK/AQ etc. Which can also balance my c/c flop range; and we are not worried about seeing a turn card.

      2. Also, would decrease the pot size by not getting raised on this flop.

      Why do you like folding the turn? I think our equity is still greater than the pot odds no?

      If we were 100bb deep, would you have played differently? re-raise flop and be willing to get it in?

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