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10NL - bottom set raised on turn on wet board

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  • 10NL - bottom set raised on turn on wet board

    Hi, here's a tough spot I got into on the turn. I decided to donk bet the flop for value and some protection because I did not want the hand to get checked through and give a free card since I figure the PFR might not cbet this flop multiway. I bet turn again for value against TP, SDs and I get raised Villain is 25/20/2 Flop Agg 3.0 Turn Agg 1.4 The turn card is kind of problematic since any 9 would make a straight (but I can't see too many nines in his calling range vs UTG except 99 that he floated the flop with) but more importantly its a club which means he could be raising here with TP+ picked up FD??? I'm not sure; He could also have slow played TT or JJ some % of the time although I would expect him to raise the flop with 2P+ But with a Turn Agg of 1.4, I opt to nit out and fold

  • #2
    Hi geo,

    With your turn bet sizing being this large I think it's pretty assured he has the 9 at least or maybe even Q9. Doesn't seem likely that bigger sets etc would raise in this spot out of (legitimate) concern YOU have the 9. So I would look at the math against the straight... We have to call 3 into 9 so basically 3-1 on our money in immediate odds. There's also some implied odds, if we fill on the river he may not be able to fold his straight with $12 in the pot and only 4 behind for us to shove. So implied odds are about 4-1. We are 34-10 or 3.4-1 to improve on the river. I think we have a close call here tbh. With implied odds of sometimes getting the rest paid when we fill it's just about right, and the few times he doesn't have a 9 he may check down the river allowing us to win even when we don't improve (he can't think we'll fold now, and be worried we have the 9 when we don't fold the turn). This will be rare but, even a small % of the time is a significant impact for us.

    The more important question to be looking at imo is your turn play prior to the raise, not what to do when raised which is mostly math. You said you bet for value against top pair and straight draws (KQ)? But is this villain really calling a large turn bet on this board with top pair? I think that seems optimistic. Your hand looks pretty strong when you fire a big turn barrel here, seems to me he'd have to be really fish to call you with just top pair. It might be better to check and give him a chance to rep the 9 and bluff, or make a hero call with top pair on the river.
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    • #3
      Yea, I think my turn sizing wasn't optimal; probably because I was confused with that turn card. I think I should have bet smaller because I don't think with this kind of board I'm getting 3 streets of value from TP type of hand anyway.

      I like the check turn line too.



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