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2NL FR - J9s overcalled OTB

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  • 2NL FR - J9s overcalled OTB

    Please ignore my actual actions - I'm more interested about a hypothetical 3bet shove on the flop.

    So I figure I'm only up against an overpair or made hand when he raises the flop. If I had shoved over him(rather than my crappy line), knowing I had 0 FE vs a range made up of made hands is it 50/50 between shoving and folding? or Should I have just thrown it away on the flop?

    Villain was 39/13 over 30 hands.
    I figure his range to dwindle to this once he raises.
    QQ+,TT,AQ,KQ,QJ,QT possibly Q9s?


    http://www.boomplayer.com/en/poker-h...089_A8C4B41EAE

  • #2
    Hi Bores,

    You've already addressed your actions (I agree) and asked they be ignored, so your wish is my command.

    I think this is a clear fold for me. I agree 100% with you that this guy is never folding, and he's not likely to be raising light or semi-bluffing given he's fairly fishy thus far at 39/13. But I disagree on the range assessment somewhat, specifically KK/AA... he does know where the raise button is preflop so I'd expect a 3b with those. Even QQ for that matter. So I think his range is skewed towards TT and Qx. While we have 2 outs to the nuts, some of our other outs are tainted. He can be full now with TT or QT, and KQ takes away the kings as outs. If we get there with a non-straight flush, he can still redraw on us with his trips. I'm showing us about a 70-30 dog vs. his range of boats and Qx, so shoving tends to just be getting our stack in bad.
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    • #3
      Thank you. Alright so my thought process couldn't have been much worse had I tried but that's good to know. That's how we learn. Next time I'm in a similar spot I will be able to fold rather than get it in. And yeah...I see where I went wrong with potential range with the QQ+. Thank you again.

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