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10NL - Flop Raise or Flat

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  • 10NL - Flop Raise or Flat

    Villain 16/9/2 (76 Hands) We flop a very strong draw and our cbet gets raised. Trying to think what this 16/9/2 guy might raise us here with leaves me between 40-55% equity. Optimistic range: { JJ-99, 66, AsJs, As9s, QJs, T9s, 87s, QJo } Pessimistic range: { JJ-99, 66, AsJs } I guess my main concern was running into sets or NFD which would put me in bad shape, so I decided to call to try and hit my draw. Once the board pairs and he fires again, I just let go.

  • #2
    This is a really interesting spot because the villain could be flatting a much wider range pre on the button after a utg raise and a mp call. If that is the case then you have even greater equity with your draw. I am just wondering what he possibly could raise your cbet with apart from the range you mentioned, maybe A10o but I would not be super keen about reraising unless I had seen him making moves with top pair top kicker on a similar board. If we do raise and he has a set or the AJs or AXs for that matter he is likely to shove and then we are in a tough spot but probably committed. And to be honest his hand looks more weighted towards small or medium pairs if he normally does not get out of line on the button.

    I think as played the call and fold on the turn is the optimum play. A play I have seen from time to time is to limp utg which can look super strong if you play TAG and if there is a raise from the BU to come over the top. You end up investing a similar amount in the pot, most likely take it down pre if he is raising light and if the BU calls you can narrow his range much further, easy fold if he 4 bets (unless he 4 bets light)

    Really the key here is not just preflop stats of your opponent but his post flop play especially in position. I don't use a HUD but I am pretty certain that they must provide that sort of info as well.


    • #3
      Hi geo,

      With this big a draw I would generally play it aggressively and reraise, we are showing massive strength and have pretty good hand equity to back it up if we get called. True we can be up against the nut flush draw and be about a 3-1 dog, but we are a 3-1 fav over Js8s (which will stack it in for sure) and flipping vs. 9s8s. We're also a massive favorite of over 4-1 vs. QJ. We're a 2-1 dog when we run into a set, but are a favorite over AT and JJ *if called*, but those are hands we are putting massive pressure on. If we would also play our set of tens etc this way then it's not so easy for the villain to stack off AT or JJ and we're an equity fav anyway if he does so a semi-bluff is hugely profitable against those parts of his range. I agree with TC that he can be calling wider than normal on the button, which leads to more of those marginal 1 pair hands, pair+gut shots like T8s, and dominated draws.

      As played, we have to fold the turn. We have reduced draw value with only 1 card to come, are now drawing dead vs. T9, TT, 99, 66, and drawing thinner against AT, JT, etc as we've lost outs that fill him up.
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