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25NL FR Zoom: Misreading a TAG

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  • 25NL FR Zoom: Misreading a TAG

    This hand is from 25NL Zoom. The villain is a profitable TAG regular who I have 2K hands on. Things seemed to be progressing nicely until his river raise.

    I thought a set of 7s most likely with his pf call and that he put me on AK or AQ. I was a bit concerned that he had slowplayed me with AA, or perhaps QQ, AK. Yet, all of those hands I would typically expect him to have 3-bet with preflop. I never expected him to show J10s! I thought I had sized my flop and turn bets to exclude any drawing hands from his range. Therefore, I couldn't see how I could fold the river, even though his raise was screaming that he had me beat.

    Mistakes like this are costly! Would you suggest folding on the river, or changing my line? Perhaps check-calling the river?


    Roland GTX

  • #2
    I think JTs can definitely be part of villains normal range here. I don't think it was an anomaly. He isn't chasing on the flop I don't think so your bet sizing isn't much of a factor. He was floating you in position to see if you actually liked that A and K or not. The 4 outs to the nuts is just a bonus. On the turn his equity improves significantly so even though you don't give up he can now come along with a decent draw.

    I agree that his raise was screaming you were beat. I've made the mistake plenty of times of ignoring that feeling. All evidence adds up to the conclusion that you are beat. I'm not sure if going for a check call on the river fearing EXACTLY JTs hearts is going to be +EV so your strong river bet was probably best. As played with your river bet, once raised you have no option but to fold. Is a winning TAG regular really going to wait until the very moment his hand loses value to shove? If he had a set of 7's I don't think villain will wait until the possible straight draw hits to make his move for his stack. He wouldn't let you set the price on the turn either with the flush draw on the board.

    Just my opinion Roland, and I feel like you know all of this already. It was just a matter of listening to that voice inside your head. The one in the back screaming, not the one in the front (ego) looking for lame excuses to call. My best strategy when in this situation is to force myself to pause for a couple seconds. If I am about to make a big bet or call and I'm not 100% confident in my decision; I try to take a second and ask myself if I actually have a good reason to do it. If I can't think of anything in those couple of seconds it is probably a mistake.


    • #3
      Great answer Rockerguy, thanks!


      • #4
        I need to quit evaluating my own hands LOL!


        • #5
          dont worry, ill be here soon!


          • #6
            Hey Roland

            Let's work backwards from the river. I wouldn't fold here, I would definitely bet/call. I think villain can be doing this with worse for value, namely flopped bottom set and AQ/AK. Moreover the only combination of JT we should expect to be in his range with any regularity is JThh. As an aside, posting Boom hands has a serious disadvantage of including results, which would be preferable to exclude for these exercises.

            Anyways given that this player is a TAG regular it means he has no JTo in his preflop range. Therefore he probably only has 3 combos of JTs that call the flop, maybe 4. Only one of those continues on the turn.

            On the other hand, he probably doesn't three-bet AK or QQ in these positions. While I would expect him to fold QQ on the flop that doesn't rule out him going call call shove with AK.

            Especially AK I might add, since he doesn't expect you to two barrel QQ or JT yourself, and given he blocks KK/AA, and can stack AQ, he should think that value shoving AK on the river has merit. He doesn't need to be value shoving with worse very often if his value shoves with better are only one combo, which I think is our most reasonable assumption. Remember, before we saw his hand we couldn't even be sure that he would take one off on the flop with JTs, since each TAG at these stakes will view that kind of flop call differently. Some think its mandatory and some wouldn't consider it anything other than spew.

            Finally, on the flop, you have bet too small. You don't block AX and AX is your primary target for getting value. AX is going to call a flop bet of a lot more than 90 cents. So bet larger and you will be able to make larger value bets on future streets as a consequence.

            All in all, well played, so don't sweat it!


            • #7
              Thanks for the indeapth analysis Gareth! Your ranging logic is going to be very useful... once I really digest it.

              Thanks again!




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