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10nl 6max, bet or check back?

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  • 10nl 6max, bet or check back?

    villain VPIP/PFR 21/14 AGGR 4.6 not too many hands though i called his cbet because i know he will be betting this flop a high % of time and i might have the best hand. he checks the turn and i decide to bet and take it down, but he raises and i have no choise but to fold. with an aggresion factor like that, was it a good idea to bet the turn? should i try to check it down? P.S. what could he have played like that? TT or maybe even KQ of clubs? complete air?

  • #2
    Hey Espada

    I would check behind this turn with your hand. The major problem you encounter in betting is that you don't get much worse to call (TX, 99 type hands) and you don't get much better to fold (nothing). So you aren't really targeting much of your opponent's range for value. Instead you are betting to not freeroll some of his give ups. But what give ups? KQ has outs against you, but that's really the only hand. Other hands like draws, medium to strong, would likely have bet the turn, and either way, they don't have that many outs compared to the price of making a bet against his continuing range, which has you crushed.

    His AF is high, so he likely would have bet with any draw on the turn. If he isn't betting a draw on the turn, he is check-raising it. That means that you can't bet to charge draws -- its a nonstarter.

    Instead I think trying to get your hand to showdown is going to be your best bet by far. Check back and see what he does on the river. If he bets 2/3 pot I'd probably give him credit for an AX value bet most of the time. This river bet, either way, is a lot easier to look up than it is to bet this turn expecting good results.

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