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10NL 6maxZ. AA raising for value on a drawing board?

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  • 10NL 6maxZ. AA raising for value on a drawing board?

    Hi,

    Raise my AA +1, the btn & bb calls then the bb donks a solid bet on 587sds flop.

    I have the As and just call. Is this ok or should I raise here for value on this board texture?

    Button goes away, turn is Td and the bb leads so small so now I have to raise it. This is looking bad on an ever drawing board.

    Is this a second mistake raising and over valuing a 1 pair hand?

    Then on a blank river 2c do I make a third error and >>check behind to showdown<< and not bet it?
    Last edited by ForrestFive; Sun Apr 07, 2013, 05:51 AM.

  • #2
    Hi Forrest,

    No reads?

    This action is often a draw or 1 pair hand (absent reads) So a case can be made for raising the flop here, but I prefer calling in position personally because:

    -If it does happen to be 2 pair+ trying to "protect it's hand", we keep the pot under control and avoid stacking off bad.

    -We avoid getting 3-bet shoved and put to a tough decision. This is not a good spot to be in because the 1 pair hands won't 3b shove, the range that comes over the top of a raise by us will be made hands of 2 pair+ and draws, and there are a bunch of combo draws present, so even against some draws we can be a dog. like vs. 9s8s for instance we're a 54-46 dog on this flop. Combine our roughly flipping equity vs. big draws with our terrible equity vs. 2 pair+ and it means when we get 3b on the flop we'll be getting our money in bad a lot. Or folding in a big pot. Yuck.

    -We utilize our positional advantage to see what the turn is and how the villain reacts, and can make a more informed decision on the turn. Raising gives him an opportunity to completely negate our positional advantage by 3-betting.

    -If a bad card comes off on the turn and he bets big again, we can get away relatively unscathed.

    -If he's on a big draw but the turn is a blank, now we are a solid favorite over all draws with only 1 card to come and can get money in good.

    His turn bet is really small, I think this looks a lot like a blocking bet trying to get a cheap river card, which is consistent with a draw. Therefore I'm willing to commit now and like raising. I think your sizing is too small though. He's got a price of 1.25 into 4.70, so 3.75-1 with potential implied odds behind. You could make it about $3 here, or if the villain is fishy even putting him all in isn't bad (not to try and make him fold, to get called by worse with 1 card to come giving us max value).

    As played I would make a value bet on the river, yes. he's going to turn over a worse 1 pair hand a ton here (or fold a busted draw).
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