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10NL - facing 3bet with AK in UTG multiway

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  • 10NL - facing 3bet with AK in UTG multiway

    Call or Raise? SB is 26/21/1 (74) 3bet 7% (30) MP and CO are unknown

  • #2
    Hi geo,

    Rather than answer now, I'm going to ask you what you think and why. Reason out the villains range and draw a conclusion about the action you think is optimal.
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    • #3
      Hi Dave, I guess the dilemma for me here is that I don't see the SB raising there as a bluff especially that my open was from UTG and got two callers already, so I think 4betting and getting it in would not be profitable since he will mostly show up with QQ+, AK IMO.
      On the other hand, I have a very strong hand and position BUT if I call I might induce calls from the players behind which would not exactly put me in a good spot?

      im actually in between a Call or Fold.

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      • #4
        Awesome! This is progress, you've now added an option you didn't initially consider. umbup: If we call, how will this hand play out post flop? Examine the variables (certain flop types and how his range interacts with them, and how hands are likely to play out then) and decide if this well be good for us or not good for us in the long term.
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        • #5
          Okay, so lets say we call and the rest fold. So we are HU and IP and assume he will cbet 100%.

          A high or K high: Basically we would be happy with an A high flop, and not so happy with a K high as we are still at risk against AA (not too likely) and probably gonna stack off anyway 100bb in 3bet pot

          Low boards: We might peel one and bet turn unimproved if he checks. If we hit an A and he checks, we can check behind to induce a call from KK/QQ on river

          Broadway flop: On something like K Q x or A J x we would have to proceed cautiously as we might be up against a set

          Monotone Board (club or diamond): We are definitely calling one street

          Monotone Board (heart or spade): We are folding to a cbet

          If villain checks low boards, we can check back to avoid a c/r and decide on turn or bet in hopes to pick up the pot vs a hand we tie
          If villain checks on A or K, we can check back to induce calls on later streets

          I'm considering low connected flops as low boards in general because I don't think connectedness has much of an influence in 3bet ranges especially from those positions

          If we call, and one or two players come along then we have to play fit n fold I guess

          With that said, I still can't quantitatively evaluate the best line

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          • #6
            I really do not know what the best line is in this spot but I think I would be stacking off here. The villain is squeezing from early position and there is already a lot of dead money in the pot. I agree with your ranging but would maybe add AQ as well. We are crushed by Aces or Ks but we have blockers that reduce the likelihood of those two hands and if we four bet and he five bets we are forced into thinking that is all he has. He could also be doing this with Qs, maybe even Js and then we are virtually flipping. I do not think calling achieves anything unless you have great post flop skills and folding would be way too tight.

            I am not too worried by the two players to act behind if I shove, the short stack might call a shove but his range is pretty wide imo.

            Cheers,

            TC

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            • #7
              Ok, nice work geo. umbup:
              I don't see the SB raising there as a bluff especially that my open was from UTG and got two callers already, so I think 4betting and getting it in would not be profitable since he will mostly show up with QQ+, AK IMO.
              I agree 100%. One of the interesting things about a spot like this is that HUD stats don't play a big role, because this scenario is fairly rare. Religious HUD users sometimes look at his 3b% of 7% and say oh he's clearly capable of 3-betting light (true) so he could be squeezing here, but that's not necessarily the case. 7% is an average over all situations, 99% of which are not out of position facing an UTG open and 2 cold callers. It's not impossible that he's making a move of course, but the large majority of the time I would expect him to be very strong here. Some players who over estimate the frequency with which villain is light will 4b/get it in here with AK because "that's what we're supposed to do", but I think in this specific situation stacking off AK pre is a pretty big spew. And in my experience in doing so in similar spots (guilty as charged lol) we get shown KK and AA much more often than we'd like here. Our equity vs. QQ+ and AK is less than 39%, a bunch of which comes from chopping with other AK's (vs. QQ+ we have less than 31%). Considering that facing this action out of position many solid players would not 3b QQ or AK, we rate to be in pretty bad shape getting it in here.
              Okay, so lets say we call and the rest fold. So we are HU and IP and assume he will cbet 100%. A high or K high: Basically we would be happy with an A high flop, and not so happy with a K high as we are still at risk against AA (not too likely) and probably gonna stack off anyway 100bb in 3bet pot
              We will have a low SPR of 2, so if we hit top pair I think we are committed all the time. That is a bit problematic as villain is not necessarily. If he has KK and an ace flops for instance, he does not have to stack the rest of the way off. So he gets to chose when to get stacks in post flop, while we really have no choice on A or K high flops. So we hit the flop roughly 1/3rd of the time with most of those hits being top/top, and when that happens we will often win a mediumish pot (when good) or lose our stack (when not good).
              Low boards: We might peel one and bet turn unimproved if he checks. If we hit an A and he checks, we can check behind to induce a call from KK/QQ on river
              I don't think so... there will be almost $4 in the pot and unless he c-bets really small relative to the pot, peeling and praying he gives up is going to be too costly. If he fires $3 calling forces us to put almost half our stack in the middle, way past the commitment threshold, with a hand we're clearly not committed on. And against a very strong range. Yuck.
              Broadway flop: On something like K Q x or A J x we would have to proceed cautiously as we might be up against a set
              Again, I don't think we can be too cautious here. We are committed. In a spot we probably can not commit profitably.
              Monotone Board (club or diamond): We are definitely calling one street
              My preference is to shove over his c-bet as a semi-bluff now. But that's not particularly attractive either. He'll fold any AK combos that don't have the big flush draw, and get in everything else. It's +EV if the board is clubs as he'll fold sometimes and we'll be flipping vs. his get it in range. If the board is diamonds it's less clear as now sometimes we are not drawing live with the Kd, so our equity vs. his all in range dips to 43%.
              Monotone Board (heart or spade): We are folding to a cbet
              Agreed. Bottom line is, the majority of post flop scenarios involve us losing a medium sized pot (when we miss... which is ~ 2/3rds of the time), winning a medium sized pot (when we improve and are good), losing our stack (when we improve and are not good), or marginally flipping for our stack (when we flop a draw on a monotone board). This seems -EV to me. If both 4-betting and calling are unattractive, that leaves folding as the best option. I know it feels unnatural to fold AK preflop, and you won't see me advocating this very often, but it can actually be the correct play if it's the most +EV (The EV of folding is zero... in most cases playing AK is +EV but in some unique circumstances it may not be, and I think this could be one of those as from the analysis above I can't figure out a plan for this hand that I reasonably think is not -EV)
              Originally posted by topthecat
              I really do not know what the best line is in this spot but I think I would be stacking off here. The villain is squeezing from early position and there is already a lot of dead money in the pot. I agree with your ranging but would maybe add AQ as well. We are crushed by Aces or Ks but we have blockers that reduce the likelihood of those two hands and if we four bet and he five bets we are forced into thinking that is all he has. He could also be doing this with Qs, maybe even Js and then we are virtually flipping. I do not think calling achieves anything unless you have great post flop skills and folding would be way too tight.
              Hi tc Folding is not too tight if continuing means getting our money in bad and losing money over time. The key element here is ranging and how we assess villains range. If he was a big losing player then he might be 3-betting hands like JJ and AQ in this spot (overvaluing their strength for the situation). If he was a hyper aggro fish he might be squeezing light sometimes not recognizing the folly of such a play given the strength indicated from the action in front of him from a TAG UTG open and 2 cold callers. If these things are true then 4-betting and getting it in can quickly swing to being +EV. Given the info we have on the villain (ironically his preflop stat line of 26/21/7% 3b is very similar to my own 6m preflop stats), I think the most reasonable expectation is that he's very strong here. I would be 3-betting only strong value hands here given this action in front with the UTG PFR being a TAG. I would not 3B AQ or JJ in villains spot vs. an already strong UTG range, as it will fold out all parts of UTG's range those hands play well against and get action from the parts of UTG's range that's crushing us, and it's not a wide range to begin with. Of course similar stats does not similar play or understanding make, perhaps he would 3b those hands and stack them off, or perhaps he would squeeze light perceiving the situation different than I would. But his post flop aggression factor of 1 (I think that's the stat geo is giving us there???) is low, it indicates some passive tendencies, which imo increases the likelihood he is only 3-betting with a very strong range here as it's more likely he'll call with JJ and AQ type hands, and even QQ and AK sometimes. In other words I do think good debate can be made here, but it should revolve around ranging the villain and villain tendencies, which can change what the optimal line is. It should not revolve around the fact that we have AK. I know some players (not necessarily those in this thread, but some) would say they just can't fold AK preflop because that would feel weak. My advice towards that is to get past it. Making an unorthodox fold because it's the most +EV thing to do isn't weak, it's strong.
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              • #8
                heey dave. i love you aproach here and geo i personaly would not 4 bet ak here unless i felt like he was squeezing her vairly often. but this is a really nice 3 bet spot for some hands like aj and ak just hope that everybody folds and still have a decent hand if the call. i would personally doe this with hands like kjs and kq aswell.
                i could see myself fold, call and raise. depending on my oponent. if its somebody who will loose big pots because he cant give up a hand i would be inclined to call here. if its a player who is playing fit or fold post flop this is a fold. if you think this guy is capable of squeezing i could see myself 4bet and flat depending on how he plays post flop.

                so in this situation for me its more about the player then my hand.
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                • #9
                  Dave your hand analyses is always fantastic, but I have to say this thread is the nuts. Really love the interactive approach you took with geoVARTA.

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                  • #10
                    I think this is a pretty poor spot to squeeze light from the SB unless the UTG raiser is opening wide or folds to 3b a very high % of the time.

                    @Rocker, thanks
                    Last edited by TheLangolier; Fri Apr 05, 2013, 09:32 PM.
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                    • #11
                      Hi Dave

                      Thanks for the extended analysis!

                      I think I had over-estimated the potential of AK post flop vs a QQ+, AK range in a 3bet pot; surely with the extra money in the pot from the two callers will make it hard to float and utilize position due to the low SPR.

                      What I did post-analysis is try to create a tree diagram to try and quantify our options (I'm not sure how I could share this since its on scrap paper but here's what I estimated)

                      Folding --> -3bb

                      Call --> -21bb

                      Raise --> -44bb (assuming he is only raising with AA/KK)
                      Raise --> -8bb (assuming he is raising QQ+)
                      Raise --> +16bb (assuming he is raising QQ+, AK)
                      On average of the three situations when we raise get it in we are at -12bb (I'm not sure if mathematically we can take the averages of those situations)

                      So it figures that folding will lead to the less -EV spot which makes it for the correct decision UNLESS we know that he will raise QQ+,AK then shoving would be right (but given the action he might flat with AK more often than raise it).

                      I took the worst line by calling and then the CO shoved, and Villain re-shoved, I folded and villain won the pot QQ vs 99

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