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10nl 6-max Zoom - Set in Position vs UTG on K-high Board ... what to do on the turn?

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  • 10nl 6-max Zoom - Set in Position vs UTG on K-high Board ... what to do on the turn?

    My computer's busted, and my HUD's in shambles, so my player reads all come from the hand (position, bet sizing, board texture, etc): • I assumed the villain was value-betting, after c-betting 2 streets. But since the bets weren't big, I ruled out KK and AA (edit: and QQ) as less likely, and thought maybe the villain was more likely to have a hand like AK, KQs? • But I forgot to include backdoor straight and flush draws, with hands like AdJd, JdTd, etc. EDIT: Also forgot to include AQ in the villain's range as hands a lot of people might c-bet small ... You think this was a good board to make a reraise with on the turn, or was it too 'baluga whale' (so dry, it'd be too obvious I was holding a set or 2pr, if I were to reraise on the turn)? Hmmm, not quite sure I asked what I wanted to ... guess I was just wondering if I could have got more out of the villain - although the villain appeared to be a reg. And they're not always the easiest people to get $ from ... at least for me PS Now that I think about it, guess we should be raising for value and to charge draws ... how big/small should it be, in case we're up against TPTK (where we wouldn't have to worry about protecting our hand)? Thanks for the help!!
    Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Apr 03, 2013, 02:41 AM. Reason: (1) Moved QQ (into the 'less likely category' (2) Added AQ

  • #2
    I'll raise it up to around $4.20. Sets up the pot to make an easy River all in.

    There could be an argument for flatting Turn. But we don't know if he'll fire the 3rd barrel, or whether he'll check/call River. Also, some bad cards like a diamond or Ace could slow down the action and we'll miss out value. Wouldn't worry too much about Baluga Theorem because sometimes regs also overvalue their 1 or 2 pair hands.

    I like my strong hands to get paid off so just go for max value here OTT. Hope to hear from others


    • #3
      I too wouldn't worry about Baluga and the ability of villain to fold his hand, especially as you don't have reads/stats for this guy. Making the standard play might scream "I haz a set!" to us, but villains will still call turn raises often enough. Slowplaying just misses a ton of value.

      Villain has bet two streets, so it seems likely he has a made hand. All you have to do now is work out which raise size allows you to win all the monies with a river shove, and it's actually really simple to work out.
      The effective stack is yours ($9.15) and you have two streets to get it all in. To do this, just grab the bet-slider and move it to a point where a third of your stack goes in on the turn, leaving the remaining two thirds for the river.
      So with $9, you'd make it $3, leaving $6 behind. (It's natural for bet sizes to double on each street).

      e.g. On the turn here, the pot is 1.85 and villain bets 1.20. You could make it 3.05 (a third of your remaining stack) and villain could call. The pot would then be $7.95, and you can shove $6.10, which is a solid value bet of around 75% of pot.
      If you raise too small on the turn, then your river shove might be an overbet, which isn't ideal. If you raise too big on the turn, then not only do you give villain an easier fold (you don't want that!), but you're left with much less than a pot-sized bet on the river, which might mean you're committed to getting it in, even if the river is hideous.

      In short, to finesse your bet-size to get your stack in over 2 streets without underbetting or overbetting, bet 1/3 of stack on street 1, and the remaining 2/3 on street 2.

      Hope this helps!
      Bracelet Winner


      • #4
        Originally posted by TrustySam View Post
        Hmmm, not quite sure I asked what I wanted to ... guess I was just wondering if I could have got more out of the villain - although the villain appeared to be a reg. And they're not always the easiest people to get $ from ... at least for me
        How to Try and Get Maximum Value Out of Our Big Hands NW, Arty - ty ty for the analysis!! umbup: You both made points that I didn't consider - and what's especially great is that one of your reraises was higher than mine, and one was lower. So there's like that interesting contrast there - of getting to hear the advantages of going a bit bigger, and the advantages of going a bit lower. Also, my question was really undefined - and yet you managed to answer my questions/concerns, so that's awesome Just a bit of background info on stuff I've been working on - lately I've been trying to: 1) bet a bit bigger with strong hands against the 'average' unknown player in the zoom pool, and 2) get more from regs, which can be hard. Defining the Villain Type is Key to Knowing How Much to Bet Where, to Best Get Stacks in by the River So, like I guess defining the villain might be key to deciding on how big to make the turn reraise, to best maximize our chances of getting the rest of our stacks in by the river? Like, maybe the 'average unknown' at 10nl might tend to have a bit harder of a time folding TPTK to a reraise, and so therefore we can bet bigger, in case scare cards come on the river as NW pointed out? umbup: But on the other hand, if the villain's showing 'reg' tendencies, and we suspect a reraise is going to get him thinking about what hands his AK is likely ahead of that would reraise the turn, maybe our best hope'll be to bet smaller and try to represent KQ so that it'll look like AK is getting odds to call with the possibility of making a better 2pr on the river, even though AK was actually drawing dead? But then i'd have to follow up and bomb the river, like Arty said - and hopefully the villain'd be more willing to stack off by that point? So there's that question of whether there was enough info to worry about the villain in this instance was an exception? And there were some signs - his bet sizing and timing looked exactly like mine, so it looked like he was using hotkeys, which isn't something casual players usually have set up, I don't think? And then villain tanked tanked for about 15-20 seconds before folding, so I guess he had AK. Were there *enough* signs here though that the villain was a reg? I think, like you both pointed out, it's probably more EV to bet bigger more of the time, absent specific info that the villain's a reg - like having a couple of hundred HUD stats showing that to be the case? In Sum: Bet Bigger!! I really like your bet sizing for the turn NW - will have to try to make mine larger, because don't we wind up making more by stacking off an 'average player' 50% of the time, than we do by betting smaller to ensure calls 100% of the time? And I really like your bet sizing for the river Arty, if it was necessary to bet smaller on the turn to ensure a call - because it could look confusing and bluffy to be betting so small on the turn, and so big on a river card that didn't change anything, assuming it wasn't one that killed the action? And maybe by the river, even a tighter villain might be more willing to go to showdown (assuming I'd still want to go to showdown)? That's a cool tip with the 1/3 bet slider thingie!!! Awesome!!! umbup: Thanks NW, Thanks Arty!! My response feels kind of rambly, but hopefully you can both tell how much I value and appreciate the feedback you gave me - it helped a lot!!! So thanks NW, thanks Arty!!! GL to both of you with your games!!! umbup: umbup: LESSONS: 1. If you're betting small to ensure a call *every time* you make a big hand, you're probably betting too small, and aren't maximizing value! 2. There's no set rule that says we *have to* or *should* make a reraise that's 3 times the size of the villain's bet - sometimes it might be advantageous to make it smaller or larger, depending on the villain, and the board texture.
        Last edited by TrustySam; Wed Apr 03, 2013, 02:50 AM. Reason: Added headings for clarity lol - as I always say, why say something in 10 words, when you can say it in 1,000? :D



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