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10nl zoom - AKo, best line?

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  • 10nl zoom - AKo, best line?

    As with most zoom spots the villain is an unknown. I bet half pot on the flop to keep his range wide, I think this bet will get stuff like TT to call at least once as well as draws like KhQh KhJh. On the turn I don't know what line is most +EV. Firstly I think checking is out of the question, he has a lot of worse hands that will call so no check thanks. I think that b/f to around 2.2 is a good line as it sets up a river bet all in that is certainly capable of being called by worse. However does bet folding allow us to be bluffed by hands such as KQhh Kjhh. I think b/c is bad, if we made a bet of around $2.20 and he ships on us we need 22% equity to call. Against a tight range of QQ,66-55,AQs,KhQh,KhJh,65s,AQo we have nearly 12% equity, if we throw in AJs then we have 19% but still not enough to make a call profitable. Another option is overbetting the turn putting him all in, I like this option as it cuts out a potential sticky turn spot but I'm unsure if the villain will call us wide enough to do so. Assuming villain calls with QQ,66-55,AQs-A9s,KhQh,KhJh,65s,AQo-ATo then we have a profitable shove but could shoving cause him to fold out those worse Ax hands? Also to calculate, how much equity we need when he calls for it to be profitable do we just treat it as if he shoved and we are calling? Hence we need to be good 35%(ish) of the time? Thanks for the help Oliver
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  • #2
    Hey Oliver

    Given this opponent's stack size, we simply can't bet/fold to 2.20. The risk of making a mistake with that line is too large. I think actually the two lines you like least are my preference, either checking or bet/calling.

    I would prefer bet/calling, being out of position, with a favourable hand, likely a passive opponent, and given the stack to pot ratio. We are in our value range and we don't benefit from seeing the river, so we can bet and charge villain. If they raise all-in we will definitely be committed in an instance like this because of the price we are getting and the inferior holdings we assume can show up in villain's turn shoving range.

    Notice that if villain was full stacked much of this would change, since a turn raise would represent a commitment of more money to this pot.

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    • #3
      Hi Gareth,

      Superb analyis as always

      Originally posted by GarethC23 View Post
      If they raise all-in we will definitely be committed in an instance like this because of the price we are getting and the inferior holdings we assume can show up in villain's turn shoving range.
      This might seem a stupid question but how wide do you think villain will shove? Wouldn't he just continue to call down with top pair or worse?
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