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NL10 set on scary board vs loose passive

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  • NL10 set on scary board vs loose passive

    In this spot I got donkbet and I raised for value and got called 2 streets on this board. Since his aggression is only 0.5 that means he would almost never bet even with nut here is it ok not to bet the river or I just missed the value bet considering the hand he'd been delt? Do I have to increase my turn bet? thanks

  • #2
    Hi Mind,

    > Do I have to increase my turn bet?

    I was actually thinking you shouldn't be betting the turn here as it seems hard to get called by too many worse hands on this turn card. Would prefer to take a free card looking to fill up, and avoid getting check-raised off our full house draw (you said villain is passive yet he's already taken an aggressive action by donking the flop, which is out of character for a passive player).

    Now that being said, maybe you had in game reads that told you betting for value here was good... Certainly those reads must be available since he bet/called your flop raise and called the turn bet no pair and no draw.

    Give how crazy loose (and bad) this flop and turn action is by the villain, if I had this type of read I would certainly favor value betting the river when checked to here.
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    • #3
      If I check the turn I have almost everytime to fold the river, while betting the turn (as scary as it is) I buy my showdown since I expect villain to check and I'll check it back.
      I like to bet the turn everytime to buy the showdown, I dont know if it's always the most profitable way to play.

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      • #4
        I like the turn bet, i just think over pairs could be calling us often still there, or maybe like A8 (on 10nl, yes these guys defend that loool) now he could have pocket 44 if he just took one off on the flop when he donked in.
        I love the river card, he could have two pair A8/4/6 easily there imo or a weird two like 68.


        If he had straight on turn, he would imo perhaps donk in once again hoping you raise, so i take that he has a str8 out of the equation.

        For me, river bet sizing is a tough question, felix logic - when in doubt....shove?

        Never checking the turn there, bet and fold to check/raise.
        because on the river..if he donks out...then you are what Folding? b/c its a scary board or what?
        he probably bet the same sizing on river (if he did bet) that you used on turn, so i prefer to lose that
        amount of money having initiative, when like you did...can check behind on river.

        10nl river value spot big time. (what dave said :PP)
        Last edited by behappy621; Tue Mar 26, 2013, 10:30 PM.

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        • #5
          Originally posted by Mind_V_Gap View Post
          If I check the turn I have almost everytime to fold the river,
          Says who? You'd be surprised how often people bluff the river when you check back the turn on a 4 straight board.

          Really hate betting and getting raised on the turn, when we have 10 outs to improve our hand, that's the thing with betting. It's worth the risk if we are going to get called by a lot of worse hands in the process but that's often not going to be the case (opponent specific obv)
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          • #6
            Originally posted by behappy621 View Post
            Never checking the turn there, bet and fold to check/raise.
            I disagree in this hand... this is fine with a hand that, if beat, has little or no outs to improve. With a set though that's not the case, bet/fold stinks here imo, I want to avoid that spot personally.... we are essentially setting ourselves up to be blown off a 10 out draw vs. a strong hand. We don't do this with the nut flush draw (9 out draw), bet/fold as a standard line on the turn, this isn't different imo.
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