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2nl 6max zoom-Stack Off or Trust My Gut?

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  • 2nl 6max zoom-Stack Off or Trust My Gut?

    Sorry, this hand was deleted by its owner
    Hi Again Everyone, Didnt have a great deal of info on the villian here they have stats of 20/5 over 21 hands. I decided to raise for value with my JJ and the villian calls. The stack to pot ratio of about 4.8 would suggest that i could stack off here with an over pair. I lead out and the villian raises quite large,as i said i probably could stack off here given i dont think the villian would flat call pre with QQ+ but i have a really bad feeling here, im not sure if the villian is raiseing with A10,K10,Q10 when i've shown such strength. Thanks guys

  • #2
    Hi Nashy,

    It's a small sample, but a 20/5 is not raising light too often. When that guy raises on the button, he's not likely to be making a standard steal with junk. (His PFR is only 5%). I actually prefer to flat call, because if you 3-bet and get called, you'll be out of position and probably still need to hit a set to be confident you have the best hand, because villain's continuance range is very tight. You're also in danger of being 4-bet, since a 5% range is loaded with monsters in the first place. I also think he would sometimes flat the 3-bet with QQ.

    I think there's more value in playing this hand passively against this opponent, trying to get just one or two streets of value, typically by check-calling a c-bet, and then leading the river if he checks the turn.

    As played, you did 3-bet and he flatted. At this point, I'd put him on AK/AQ that doesn't want to play for stacks, KQs that plays well in position, possibly QQ as said above, and hands like TT/99 that are trying to hit a set. You lead out and he makes a big raise. Despite the stack to pot ratio, I think this one is a fold. I can't see this villain getting out of line here. You have the worst overpair, but he can have QQ+ or a set. So I like a fold.

    A hand quite similar to this pops up in my favourite training video by Nikachu. He talks about how 3-betting JJ against tight players manipulates villain's continuance range to one that has you in bad shape.
    Got to 4 mins into http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqDhORV_dPs and see if that helps.
    Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      Thanks again Arty really appreciate all the help!!

      Comment

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