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10nl FR, AA vs unknown, scary board

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  • 10nl FR, AA vs unknown, scary board

    few hands on villain, so no reads i bet the flop and turn for value, looking for a call from overpairs and FDs. river is a spade which completes the flush and decide to check because , i think, the only thing i beat right now is TT(JJ+ would probably 3bet pre) he bets the river quite small, which looks to me that he wants to get called. 1) is my line correct? bet-bet-check 2) should i have called the river?

  • #2
    Hi Espada,

    I think I would call here. The front door flush did come in but us holding the ace reduces some of the flush combos he'll have. All potential straight draws have missed. And we can't rule out worse 1 pair hands. I would not discount JJ-KK, while he would certainly 3b those some of the time we can't assume it's 100% of the time, especially with JJ and to a lessor extent QQ. He can also show up with stuff like A8, 87, 77, 66 as well. The smallish bet can look like it's a big hand wanting to get called but players often make bigger value bets. This bet sizing can also be done 1) as a cheap bluff, or 2) for thin value vs. weaker showdown value type hands by making it easier to bluff catch light. And there's some measure of fudge factor that he's doing something that makes no sense. I know you said no read, but that's not entirely true... he's playing an odd stack of 53bb's so more likely to be a fish imo which increases the fudge factor of some random nonsense play.

    We have to call $1.40 so the break even point is 22%. I think we'll be good at least this often, and if we're not then it's got to be close, so I'm not going to fold the top of my range in a big pot here.

    As an aside, if the villain were deeper I would almost certainly bet/fold with the only read being his stack size. That's not a great option here imo as he's only got a pot sized bet left.
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