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10NL 6 Max Flush Draw Odds?

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  • 10NL 6 Max Flush Draw Odds?

    V2 was 47/32, AF 3.0 over 63 hands. Flop CB: 75%(4), Turn CB: 50%(2) V4 was 22/18, AF 8.0 over 50 hands PF: Should we consider squeezing here since V2's loose? OTT: I think I should have folded when V4 double-barreled multiway. We could be crushed easily. V2 check/raises the Turn. Obv value bet. Assigned him a range of { QQ, 55, 22, QJs, QJo }, we're an underdog of 22%. However pot odds we're getting to make the call was 4.2:1 (19%). Slightly better than breakeven. I feel that it's ok to fold here since we know we're crushed by his check/raise. But getting about the right odds, can we flat it or ship it? Thanks!

  • #2
    Hi TANW,

    I prefer flatting to squeezing here... KQs plays well in position, multi-way, and and against their ranges which should have some dominated big card combos in there that they may fold to a squeeze.

    Calling the flop is standard here, raising cuts the value of our hand pretty badly vs. this big flop bet.

    I think you can consider raising the turn as we may get V4 off of some strong 1 pair hands like KQ or AQ by effectively repping a set or QJ, it shows a ton of strength.

    As played this is a clear call to me. We have a correct price to draw to the flush vs a probable really strong hand, plus implied odds to boot (pot will be $17 and we'll only have $3 left, how can any strong hand not pay us off when we make back door spades here? So clearly +EV to call. Plus we are in position so the few times he's turned a draw and is making a semi-bluff (probably not often but can't be discounted imo), we'll win the showdown when he checks the river to us. Unlikely to bluff the river as again, we'll have to call $3 into $20 so he won't expect us to fold ever.

    Shoving is not good, as you're taking that favorable price and making it -EV.
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    • #3
      Thanks Dave! Actually I wasn't sure about our relative hand strength when V4 double barreled, especially when multiway. It seemed like we were already beaten, so I mentioned folding. We're ahead of QT at most, behind QJ, AQ and sets. Haven't used this line of raising Turn multiway to fold out same and better hand. Can try it if similar situation and Villain type arises

      As played, I took the line of shoving. We hit our spade and won. He showed 55. Bad play by me, calling is better.



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