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5NL - fire turn or take a free card?

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  • 5NL - fire turn or take a free card?

    I have some mixed feeling about this hand and couldn't come up with a clear decision after review. Villain is unknown. Basically, I raised his donk bet to rep an overpair. He does not believe us and decides to flat with what I think could be a PP, or some TP kind of hand, or maybe a draw. So the turn is a good card for us which gives us a FD and a gutshot SD but question is, can we get him off his hand on his turn? and will we be at risk of a c/r to blow us off our draw? Bet or check?

  • #2
    Hi geo,

    It seems -EV to be making a move on a villain who is totally unknown. I would generally just fold to his flop donk bet. We have no idea what his range to donk is, and although it may well be a lot of 1 pair hands that we in theory can put pressure on (and that many turn and river cards will devalue), I find it's often the case in Button vs blind or blind v blind that people just won't give you credit for having it and they will check-call you down with their small pair here. Obviously with reads this can change but without them, save the move imo.

    I would check back the turn and take the free card as played. As I said above I don't think he's folding 1 pair hands to us, and the 9 is a card that improves a fair bit of his range as well. Since we picked up a bunch of hand equity betting again and getting check-raised (running into a monster) is a disaster, we don't want to get blown off a big draw like this or put in a bunch of $ bad with only 1 card to come, so with little perceived fold equity on a semi-bluff I'd just take the free card.
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