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10nl 6maz, check raised OTT with AA

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  • 10nl 6maz, check raised OTT with AA

    villain stats VPIP/PFR 15/11 3bet/F3B 1.5/0 ST 25 AGGR.F 2 W$SD 85 i 3bet my AA against this villain and getting called. flop is pretty dry, so i make a smalish cbet because i wanthim to continue with his 99-QQ, KQ type hands. turn is a blank, i bet small again for the same reason and villain check-minraises. i make the call and villain shoves the river. based on his stats, i thought he is never bluffing in this spot. could he have flatted KK, 66 and slowplayed OTF?its also possible he had played even AdKd that! what would you do in my shoes?

  • #2
    Hi Espada,

    I think your flop action is fine but I don't really agree with the turn action... your reasoning for betting small is to target 99-QQ, but the villain is a nit, I can't see us ever getting 2 streets of value from those holdings with a bet/bet line from a nit, even for smaller sizings. I think our best chance to get 2 streets is to check behind one of the early rounds so he thinks some of his underpairs to the K are good.

    Can we ever get 3 streets of value from worse? I think it's a maybe, with the only hand that qualifies being AK. That's the thing about nits, they just don't give action.

    As played, absolutely fold the river and tbh, fold to the turn check-raise. I realize on the surface that sounds tight, but this is a villain who is a nit and who is good at showdown 85% of the time he gets there. We've shown a lot of strength with an aggressive line at every opportunity, and he still thinks he's good on the turn. I doubt he's taking this line with AK, I think we're getting shown a set here most of the time.

    The formula for beating nits is simple... Bludgeon them to death off small and medium pots, and don't pay them off when they want to get all the monies in.
    Last edited by TheLangolier; Wed Mar 20, 2013, 08:49 PM.
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