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10nl 6max, trips OTF ...raise or shove?

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  • 10nl 6max, trips OTF ...raise or shove?

    villain stats: VPIP 51 PFR 22 AGR.F 2.15 villain in front of me limps and i make an isolation raise with 33 in the BTN. i hit a set, which is nice, so i make a 2/3 pot bet to get value from any pair, SD and FD. villain check-minraises and i shoved, basically because i didnt know what to do if any of his potential draws completed on the turn did i scared him away by shoving, and lost value? should i just have raised(or call), and if yes how much? how should i proceed if the turn was an 8, T, J, K or a spade?

  • #2
    Hi Espada,

    I'm philosophically committed to stacking off on the flop with a set here, so I want to choose a bet size that forces a villain to make a difficult decision on his own commitment. While he's almost always getting it in with a better set here, he also has lots of draws in his range. Shoving is too much of an overbet, and can allow villain to fold all his one pair hands and draws. After his minraise to 1.30, you have 8.95 behind. In spots like this, I like to use the bet-slider to select a size that is one third of my remaining stack. This will mean that if I see another card (because villain calls), I'll be betting about double the amount I bet here and it won't be an overbet, so it's more likely to be called by a villain on a weaker hand/draw.
    So here, I'd raise to about $3.60, leaving $6 behind. If villain calls on the flop, the pot will be about $8, and you can put your remaining $6 in on safe turn cards. The turn card could be ugly, but we'll still have 10 outs to a boat/quads. You could take a free card, but I'd usually be happy to get it in there.
    Bracelet Winner

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