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10nl Zoom - Good spot to donk bet?

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  • 10nl Zoom - Good spot to donk bet?

    This villain is a tight reg, however he does steal from the button. I have 91 hands on him for which his stats are 17/13 he has opened 40% of BTN's in 15 opportunities, his F3b is 50%, his cbet 80% amd turn barrel 50%. I decided to donkbet here as the board was very wet and I figured that I could get called by a lot of worse hands, draws and overcards. Also I feel if it checks through and a club or straight card comes I'll be somewhat unsure what to do. By checking I also give missed overs that might not cbet the chance to draw out for free. Is this reasoning okay, or would another line be preferable? Oliver
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  • #2
    Hi Oliver,

    I actually lean slightly to 3-betting preflop here. TAGs aren't prone to making big post flop mistakes, but if a villain is making certain mistakes I like to try and exploit those. It seems based on the limited stats you have, that this guy may be making 2 mistakes... calling 3b's too often, and c-betting the flop too often. I would discount the c-betting one mostly here because A) 80% isn't grossly over doing it anyway, and B) the sample size is insignificant for this stat, it's basically 10/12 times on a sample of 91 hands with 13% PFR. Calling 3b's light is the bigger mistake, and although this sample is even more insignificant, if it holds true that he's doing it too light I would like to take advantage of that. All that said, I really can't stress enough to not use irrelevant stats... both these hypothesis are highly circumstantial with virtually no sample size to speak of.

    That being said, if I have a villain through 91 hands playing 17/13 and opening 40% of buttons through 15 opportunities, I will be 3-betting him pretty wide as I feel comfortable he's opening light enough. This is a value bet with TT and we'll see if we can grow on the calling 3b stat, it adds some balance to the monsters and bluffs by expanding the value range.

    Flatting like you did I would not lead out here. 10/12 c-bets is enough for me to believe he is going to do it religiously HU in position, so let him bet his air. Your reasoning would be a good fit for 6/12 cbets or some similar stat.
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