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25NL Zoom: Should I learn to fold Aces

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  • 25NL Zoom: Should I learn to fold Aces

    Villain is 18/16 4% 3bet over 160 hands I cb dry board. I value bet turn & he min-raises. I can't get away from this and I think it's a big leak of mine. I constantly over-value big pairs. He has 4% 3bet, so he's unlikely to have JJ-KK, AK, so he may have called with suited connectors KQs-98s, or small & medium pocket pairs. Should I potentially check this turn as I'm building a big pot, we're deep & if he raises me & I call then pot is becoming uncomfortably large for just an overpair? However, his raise on the turn is small so I think it's ok to see river as played? His river bet has value written all over it, but I only need to be right 1 in 4 so I call as he could have just 2 pair.

  • #2
    **moved to more appropriate forum JWK24**

    6 Time Bracelet Winner


    • #3
      Hey Carl

      The main question here is what hands do you think he would raise the turn with?

      At the end of your post you mention that he could just have two pair. Which two pair?

      Put yourself in villain's shoes for a little bit. He sees you raise (if he's running a HUD he knows you're tight), c-bet a dry board, and double barrel the turn on a dry board. You didn't raise from a steal position and you have showed zero weakness.

      If you were villain on this board and saw you take those actions, would you raise a hand like 88 on the turn? I don't see any reason to think he would. Would he just float with KQ to bluff raise a tight player on a dry board on the turn like this?

      The short answer is no, he wouldn't do either of those things. This leaves only JX or better for him to raise you with on the turn, which makes bet/folding the turn the best play. We should still bet the turn for value, because we expect all worse hands to call or fold and plenty call, like 88, for example.

      Bet/folding is also really efficient because we only expect better hands to raise and we can comfortably get away.

      I notice the same mistake repeated in your post.

      1st on the turn, you mention the price he lays you as a reason to continue versus his raise.

      Don't let the price be an excuse for you to not take a minute to consider what he might actually have.

      2nd on the river you again mention the price in the absence of any hand reading.

      The question you should ask yourself isn't, what is the price? But rather, what could he have?

      Let's say we are getting a really good price, like 4:1. We need to be good 20% of the time to break even. If we are only good 10% of the time and call, we are making a large mistake. We didn't have anywhere close to the right amount of equity!

      The fact is that its hard to distill things in game from the price you are getting except in the most basic or clear of situations.

      So let's recap the logic of the hand

      1) We showed a lot of strength by i) being a tight player ii) raising from a non steal position iii) c-betting a dry board and iv) following it up with a double barrel, then additionally, v) calling a turn raise

      2) It is a dry board with a clear threat to our aces, namely any JX. i) we wouldn't expect villain to overplay a hand worse than ours on the turn and if he has a better hand than ours we have 2 outs. ii) that means we have 2 outs against most of his turn raising range, for 5% equity. That means we need an extremely good price to continue, and 4:1, 5:1, is just not going to cut it.

      3) Getting away from aces is to not think about them as aces. Oh aces, I hope it doesn't happen to me again! Think about your hand in context of the pot being played. Sometimes aces is still going to be the nuts when your opponent plays aggressively. More often aces won't be, and this is a perfect, textbook example of such a case.

      Let me know if this didn't address any of the points you were wondering about or if anyhting wasn't clear!


      • #4
        Hi Carl,

        Id do the same preflop, and on the flop. When he raises the turn, its a hard spot, but i dont see him doing this too much with worse hands; maybe some picked draw or a pocket pair that puts you on overcards, but i think these are the less; still can be ok to call once. When the river comes and he bets, id fold there, i think you are behind decent amount of the times. Also you have to call 9,70 into a 26.65 pot, so its a little more than 2.5 to 1.


        • #5
          I think if you dont show the outcome of the hand it generates a better disscusion.


          • #6

            Great analysis. It all makes perfect sense, especially you're point about the pricing.

            I'll definitely try to digest what you've said & remember at least 2 or 3 of the points when I'm next in a similar situation!



            • #7
              Originally posted by GarethC23 View Post
              We should still bet the turn for value, because we expect all worse hands to call or fold and plenty call, like 88, for example.

              Bet/folding is also really efficient because we only expect better hands to raise and we can comfortably get away.
              Hi Gareth, I have questions playing an overpair on a paired broadway board as well. I second with the double-barrel 2 streets for max value, like you said from lower pairs. Should we check/call the River to a small bet? Check/fold to a large bet then? Since calling twice seems like he has a J.

              On the other hand, how about check/calling the Turn to keep the bluffs and lower pairs in his range? Some players just like to float and BVMCB. In this manner, we still get 2 streets of value. The caveat is that he may check back. But we can still bet River for value.

              Btw Carl thanks for the post!!



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