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16NL 6-Max Set vs Passive Player

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  • 16NL 6-Max Set vs Passive Player

    Villain's 29/0, AF:0.6 over 57 hands. Flop FCB: 67%(3) Previously had a hand with him which he donkbet me <1/2 pot Flop and Turn with 2 pairs QJo, River he check-call my bet. Won my TPTK AQo. Was surprised he didn't check-raise River despite having top 2 pairs. This plus his bet size indicated some sort of passiveness. OTR he donks small n reraises us small. We're getting decent pot odds here to call, 1:6.5 (13%). When I input his range of 2 pairs and straights { AJs-ATs, KQs, JTs, 98s, AJo-ATo, KQo, JTo, 98o }, we're 32% underdog OTR. Was my River raise right? And will you consider folding to the small reraise by this Villain type?

  • #2
    Hi Awesome,

    I actually don't like raising here. I don't understand your ranging... you are including 2 pairs in his range and yet the read you have strongly suggests he won't be aggressive with 2 pairs on the river. Especially in a spot where you have shown great strength. I think you have to narrow his range even further, to sets and straights. Obviously we beat sets, but it's not certain he would get aggressive with those. Although his donk bet sizing is small, it does look like he might sometimes be trying to show down cheap (all hands in this category we beat).

    Given all that I would either just call his donk bet, or make a small value raise to about $4 and fold to a shove, as gross as that sounds. I can't see this guy taking a bet/3b all in line on the river without the nuts.

    Min-reraise, great price, can't fault you for paying it off but I think we're pretty much never good here. The only thing that argues for a call is the small sample the read is over, if we had 500 hands with similar info I would never call this and would in fact probably not raise in the first place.
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    • #3
      Dave yup I should revise my ranging here. If we exclude all 2 pairs and input JJ, TT, 44, we're severely crushed, 22% dog OTR. When he donkbet small, I thought we were missing value flatting if he had 2 pairs. But like you said, based on the reads, he might not even donkbet with 2 pairs.

      Here, he held the 2nd nuts 9c8c

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