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16NL 6-Max Fold Equity, Real Equity?

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  • 16NL 6-Max Fold Equity, Real Equity?

    Villain 6's 23/19, AF:2.4 over 156 hands. CO Stl: 31%(16), Flop Fold Donkbet: 0%(2), Flop Raise Donkbet: 50%(2) Hi all, so we picked up a flush draw + 2 overs, supposedly 15 outs. I felt that the board was difficult for him to hit, donked into him. Got minraised, we reraised, leveraging on fold equity. He raises us again, indicating strength. I'm pretty sure we don't have much fold equity if we shove. Hoped we're up against 8x, 99, TT. So I went all-in. 1) On such board texture, is it a bad idea to get it all-in OTF despite having FD + 2 overs? Gave him a range of boat, quads, overpairs, TP, trips and optimistically OESD { 77+, A8s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A8o, T9o, 87o, 76o }, we're 36% favourite. 2) Against this Villain type, when he minraised and rereraised us, does it mean we're crushed? Should we flat, fold or shove?? I'm not too sure how to proceed similar drawy hands. Pls advise. Thanks!
    Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Sat Mar 02, 2013, 10:28 AM.

  • #2
    Hi TANW,

    You seem to be putting some serious volume as of late. Good luck with the grinding

    As far as the actual hand is concerned, on this sort of boards I wouldn't look to get all the money in on the flop since we might very well be drawing dead already. Another important issue here is with how you got the money in on the flop. It's one thing to get the money in on the flop and a different one to get it in after a 5-bet. What I mean to say is that your opponent range the way the hand was played should be really strong here; his min-raise on the flop might not mean much, but when u 3-bet and he 4-bets over the top I think it is too optimistic to give him the range you did there.
    The way I 'd approach such a situation, is to simply let the opponent bet something like .70 -.80 and check raise to around 2.75 - 3.00. But in this case, I would still fold my semi-bluff to a 3-bet on this sort of board.

    note: btw, I think it should be noted that we cannot derive much for the opponent's post-flop tendencies, only having 2 hands on donkbet situations.

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    • #3
      I think donking out on that flop villain is going to put you on a lot of small pairs and draws.

      Maybe check-call then donk almost any turn? At the very least villain will have a harder time reading your hand. It might help you get to river cheaper as well if you don't get a fold.

      Comment


      • #4
        Originally posted by TheAwesomeNW View Post
        Villain 6's 23/19, AF:2.4 over 156 hands. CO Stl: 31%(16), Flop Fold Donkbet: 0%(2), Flop Raise Donkbet: 50%(2)

        1) On such board texture, is it a bad idea to get it all-in OTF despite having FD + 2 overs? Gave him a range of boat, quads, overpairs, TP, trips and optimistically OESD { 77+, A8s, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, A8o, T9o, 87o, 76o }, we're 36% favourite.

        2) Against this Villain type, when he minraised and rereraised us, does it mean we're crushed? Should we flat, fold or shove??
        1) Yes it is a bad idea. Our two overs are very counterfeight. One reason, the board is paired so they might not be outs. They might not be outs anyways to KK. Also our flush draw outs aren't clean. That's because they can get resucked out on, or shut out by hands on the turn, whether 7x or AA. So our equity is quite bad versus his getting it in range. 36% favourite might be generous here and you should not be looking to get this much money behind in as a 36% favourite anyways.

        2) Why did you lead out? That has created a lot of our problem in this hand. I would prefer a check-call. You could also check-raise, which opens us up to a three-bet, so if you check-raise, which is fine, we have to fold to the flop three-bet (see #1).

        Hopefully this makes sense. But starting with a lead is a bad way to start this hand I think

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        • #5
          Thanks all! Appreciate your inputs Wanted to leverage on fold equity, should have check-raised like always. Shouldn't have gotten fancy leading into him..

          So he had 75o FTW!

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