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10NL Zoom: Should I find the fold button on the river?

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  • 10NL Zoom: Should I find the fold button on the river?

    Villain is 18/8 (40 hands) When he check-raised the turn I happily call as although the straight gets there I'm getting the odds to river a full house & he could have a smaller set. I think AK, AA-QQ is unlikely as he probably would have raised pre-flop so QT is quite a large part of his range? I'm still unable to fold sets, even though a flush now gets there on the river. Is this a big leak?
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  • #2
    Hi Carl,

    Firstly I would raise a little bigger pre flop, 3bb std open +1bb for per limper +1bb for being OOP. So in this situation I opt to raise to 5bb, you hae a value hand so why not build the pot.

    When he raise on the turn I think his range will look something like this imo... 99,33,AKs,AcQc,KcQc,KJs,QTs,AKo,KJo,QTo. You have around 66% equity against this range so I'm certainly not folding yet and I prefer a call as it keeps his range widest going to the river.

    Unfortunately the Ac is a bad card for you as he's less likely to barrel a hand like KQ now. Given the action I think that he does have AK combos in his range but would only bet if he held the Kc as he blocks the FD against a range of 99,33,KJs,QTs,AdKc,AhKc,AsKc,AsKd,KJo,QTo when he bets the river, you have 44.8% equity.

    9.94/4.70=2.11 to 1 in pot odds

    1/3.11=32% equity to make the call, therefore imo this is a +EV call Don't worry that he had QT this time you play against a range not a specific hand.
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    • #3
      Hi carl,

      I'd raise more preflop over a limper, especially since you'll have to play out of position to him if he calls.

      Flop c-bet is fine. We turn gin, and he raises our bet. I think your range assessment is good but your action should not be to call his raise, but to raise again. We want 33, 99, KJ, K9 getting their money in the middle right now before the river comes a club, Q, or T and scares him. If he's got QT, so be it, hopefully will hit our 10 outter in that case. All the other hands that we're beating, get in right now so we don't lose them to a scare card.
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