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5NL - call down with TPTK vs TP Villain

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  • 5NL - call down with TPTK vs TP Villain

    Villain 19/13/1 (697 Hands) F3bet 50% (8 Hands) Flop Cbet 50%, Turn Cbet 50% WTSD 26% OTT I think Villain will continue betting when he picks up a FD with hands like: AdKd, AdJd, AdTd, JdTd, etc. I don't think I see alot of 8s in his hands though. OTR, I think he would shut down with his bluffs so I only see made hands betting here. AA/KK, AQ, KQ, QJ. In which case, I'm calling. BUT would a Tight Passive player be betting here with KQ/QJ? Against AA/KK/AQ I'm pretty much getting close odds to call, but I wasn't too happy to call here. Do you see us folding river?

  • #2
    I like the line you took in this hand. Ideal situation on river is villain checks then we get to value bet ourselves.

    Villain's value bet on river is bad news. AA/KK for sure a possibility. I wouldn't expect such a player to make that bet with JQ. Maybe KQ rarely(for value), maybe 99-JJ rarely(as a bluff). I think this type of player usually shuts down on the turn with AKo since he is usually has little pot equity or fold equity if he doesn't hit the turn. Draw type hands could easily double barrel, but I think he expects a call on the river often enough to rarely if ever bluff them. 98s is very possible in villains range if that 13-15% CO PFR is at least somewhat balanced.

    Your representing AQ, KQ, QJ, QT, draw, slowplayed 8. Villain goes for standard value bet against that range. He only beats one of those options, and the flop was rather dry.

    I think I would fold here. Villains range is on the stronger side and he doesn't seem the least bit concerned about you calling him down on the river. It is close, but I wouldn't expect a 19/13 regular to get too out of line.

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    • #3
      Yo Geo,

      I like the way you played the hand OTF and OTT. On the river I would fold thought here's why. You are getting very close to 3-1 in pot odds, this requires you to have 25% equity to make the call.

      If we think he'd make this river bet with QQ+,66,AdKd,AQs,A8s,AQo then you have around 20% equity. You can already see that this isn't the right amount required but lets look at it in EV to see why.

      ((Probability you win)*($ you win))-((probability you lose)*(£ you lose))=EV

      (0.2*$3.77)-(0.8*$1.3)=$0.764-$1.04=-$0.286

      So you lose around 29c on average with this call.

      Good luck bro

      Oli
      Last edited by Croyd93; Sat Feb 23, 2013, 12:39 PM.
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      • #4
        Hi geo,

        I actually think we can fold the turn. You're speculating that he is betting enough flush draws that you can call, but this is very unlikely. If the turn was an offsuit 6 would you still call? If the answer is no, then don't let a few combos of back door flush draws change your mind.

        This guy is pretty TAG for 6-max, and he's not a big c-bettor, yet he's c-bet big both the flop and turn. I think our best hope is that he's got KQ, but we are usually tied or beat here and can let this go on the turn for the 2nd large bet.
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        • #5
          Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
          Hi geo, If the turn was an offsuit 6 would you still call?
          Yes

          Wow I never considered folding TPTK outright like that.
          I mean what are we expecting to hit when we call with AQ anyway

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          • #6
            Originally posted by geoVARTA View Post
            Yes

            Wow I never considered folding TPTK outright like that.
            I mean what are we expecting to hit when we call with AQ anyway
            When a villain is TAG with c-bet stats that are low, and this action sequence ensues, it's fair to range him as pretty strong. I would think AQ is near the bottom of his range to raise pre here and fire 2 large barrels. While we have hit the board, the information we're getting seems to indicate strongly we're not in good shape. When our hand is at the bottom of villains range it's ok to fold.

            What if you had AK and raised preflop, getting called by an extremely passive player. The flop came A74, you bet and they called. Turn is a T, you bet and they raised. Would you call? I mean, what where you hoping to flop with AK?
            Last edited by TheLangolier; Sun Feb 24, 2013, 07:46 PM.
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            • #7
              somehow a raise seems more powerful than a bet :P
              But yea, I totally see what you mean. Facing aggression from a TAG with those type of stats on Q high is like getting raised, we better have something better than TP. well noted.
              ...as always, thanx Dave!

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