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Low pocket pair on SB

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  • Low pocket pair on SB

    Im just wondering theoretically about this hand.

    What should I do on that spot? Raise or fold? Anyone got some math?

    Other Q: If button raise, is it fold, call or raise? Math here to please

    Not biggy pot or anything, I would just like to know to improve my game.

  • #2
    What I do know.

    The probability of hitting a set on the flop is 10.8% or 8.26 to 1 against.

    But would it be valuable to take action there with low pairs in the long run?


    • #3
      Usually I fold but at that time I wanted to call to see a flop. Then I started thinking about, "what if I raise"?

      Might be an obvious move to do here but I dont know. Langolier?


      • #4
        Hi Senja,

        Preflop I would do neither (raise or fold), I think calling to flop a set is optimal. I might raise the limper in a regular game, but as this is a 20bb cap game I think we are getting 20bb stack action much more often than in a regular game and are going to be flipping or a 4-1 dog. But we only have to call .25c with a potential implied odds against a single player of 40-1 so we can definitely call.

        On the flop I would generally lead out for like .60c here. This flop texture misses both of them a lot and in the SB it's credible for you to represent it, so we should be able to pick up the pot often enough to be profitable. If you get action, shut down immediately is fine.

        If the button had opened for a raise, I would generally fold. In a 20bb cap game we aren't going to get the implied odds necessary to set mine vs. a raise, and reraising all in with a baby pair is too light unless the guy frequently raise/folds the button (much rarer in cap than regular games)

        It's been a long time since I played cap games, and my volume at them is small, but this is how I would approach this type of spot. Also add a note on the villain's button limp with QQ... if we had a solid big card hand in your spot like AJ that could be a raise vs a weak button limp, but this guy has a stronger limping range than normal so we need to add that to any stats/reads we have.
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