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For all you number lovers

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  • For all you number lovers

    Here's a hand that got me confused. I really had to think about this one. If it was a 2NL cash game, I probably wouldn't of mind spewing $2, but this was $60. Now, since you all know that I don't play with a HUD, nor do I use calculators, I had to make my decision on the notes I have on those players. But for the sake of number lovers, I went back to this hand in PT4, to give you info on theses players. Villain_6, VP 21/PR 17/3B 3/CB 64 (164 hands) Villain_1, VP 30/PR 17/ 3B 0/CB 100 (23 hands) I also used some calculators to give you some numbers (hope they are right) What's my pot odds? As you can see, I need to put in an additional $41.07 in a pot already at $117.74, which gives me pot odds of almost 3:1, so this gives me good odds to call. How many outs do I have? Well, I have a possibility of 9 more spades, 2 Ten's and I'll add the other 3 Aces for 14 outs. With 14 outs and 46 cards unknown, there are 14 cards that will let me win the hand and 32 cards (46 unseen cards – 14 winning cards) that will cause me to lose. Thus the odds of me getting one of the cards I need on the river are 32 to 14. This simplifies down to just about 2.3:1. In other words, I'm about 2 times more likely to lose this pot than I'm about to win it, so those are very good odds to call. Do I have descent odds with PokerStove? I put one of the Villains with a possible straight and the other with KK, QQ or JJ at best. When those cards were put in PokerStove, I got about 30% for me and 30% and 40% for the Villains, I'd say pretty close. Therefore it should be a call when you take the outs and pot odds in consideration. So for all you HUD users and calculator users, is this a call or a fold

  • #2
    2 players doing that..........hiccup....not just one...,

    thats a fold bigtime, but think you may have called,

    cheers
    Poker Rule #1....Never listen to me...hiccup

    7 Time Bracelet Winner


    Comment


    • #3
      Generally with top pair and a flush draw you either have the best hand or the best draw. However with this kind of action this may not be the case. I would certainly say the chances of you having the best hand are slim. You pretty much need a spade and probably one that doesn't pair the board. So that's 9 possible spade, take the 4s out, and then if you put one of the villains on an over pair at least one higher spade could be a dirty out so that makes 7 safe spades = approx. 14%. $117.74 in the pot by my count and $41.07 to call. Around 2.87 to 1 so you need about 34% equity to make this +EV so fold.

      Yes, no? it's 4am so I may have made all that up

      Tournament of Champions Winner 2013

      Bracelet Winner

      Comment


      • #4
        Hi Sand,

        You made a point of stating you don't use you're HUD so you have to make decisions based on yur notes... but I don't see any notes? Did you have any reads on these guys?

        So here's my thoughts on this hand. First the preflop call is fine, but I like a different flop line. You chose to lead out into the preflop raiser as a semi-bluff. I like that play here, largely because it sets up the play you didn't choose to make. When players donk out like this it is often interpreted as a draw or modest made hand (1 pair) trying to "see where it's at". So if we think these villains are ranging us, this is their most likely though process if they're at least semi-regular players. So the preflop raiser responds by flat calling, that's a good sign that his holding is not very strong, and then the button raises. While the button can certainly have a strong hand here, it's also a nice spot to raise with 1 pair hands perhaps as weak as JJ or even just a 9, or to semi-bluff with a straight or smaller flush draw, in light of our and V6's weaker perceive ranges.

        Here's what I'm getting at. When the action comes back to us there is now $17.25 in the pot and 2 villains who have a fair bit of non-monster holdings in their ranges... this is a great spot to come back over the top with a bet/3b line. This should look MUCH stronger than our initial lead, and we definitely have fold equity in making this play, so we'll take down the 17.25 at least some % of the time. If we get called we still rate to have a lot of hand equity with 2 cards to come. So like if V1 has JJ and decides he's going to call us, we still have almost 46% equity in the pot. The slight underdog nature of this spot is easily compensated for by A) the times we take it down immediately winning 17.25 without a fight, and B) the times we get it in vs. a worse draw which we are destroying... for isntance if V1 is semi-bluffing a hand like KsQs, you 3b shove and V6 folds, now he's going to think "2 overs+Flush draw, I have lots of outs" and call off. Getting it in as the dominating draw sees us to be an over 80% equity favorite.

        Now as to your numbers, the odds are right but I don't get the same pokerstove results... you said KK-JJ vs a straight vs your hand is 30% equity for you, I come up with only 20% though against QJ and JJ specifically. If I change QJ to be a set of 4's it makes no difference, we still need a flush to win. And the pocket jacks is in terrible shape either way. As played with these numbers it seems to be a fold. And an ugly spot... a nice illustration of why a very strong bet/3b line on the flop that leverages fold equity on our side is preferrable.
        Head Live Trainer
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        4 Time Bracelet Winner



        Comment


        • #5
          Thanks Dave, the reason I didn't give out my notes YET, is that I wanted a decision based on numbers. We often talk about "Pot odds", "Outs", "+EV" and the values from a HUD, that I wanted to understand how the numbers would affect a decision without notes.

          I will post my notes later

          Comment


          • #6
            Hi Sand,

            At $50NL I can only give my gut feeling pre-flop, position and stack sizes. At high end micros @ 25NL a 6-max c/o raise means something maybe, but on low stakes 50NL game are you thinking this may be a wider steal?

            Then how do we get some money post flop?

            Big stack folded then c/o raise and the button over call is probably a check.

            Equal stacks I like your call / check in the bb.

            When you lead and see the c/o call and raise from the button alarm bells ringing? But you over call NO I would shove my stack here.

            Probably the worst thing to do if that's the HA pros say.
            Just my 2 cents and how you play at 5NL is different at 50L.


            You have fold equity in your stack size to shove and more than evens in implied odds if you get called.

            I'm useless about equity and the percentages method?
            I hear people say in live training "I need to get it right 1 out of 3 it's 30%".

            I don't understand that stuff or use a hud / poker stove but give me a ratio direct + implied odds and then give me your money - even if they call (the power of fold equity).

            Basic PSO course crib sheet says all-in 2 cards to come "flush draw plus two over cards" - yes the crib sheet says 15 outs.


            The turn 10 I hate it and you lead out again and face a jam


            This not a math question that I can answer on the turn.




            So sorry Dave I over lap your post - will not be able to read comment for a day.
            Last edited by ForrestFive; Sun Feb 10, 2013, 09:01 AM. Reason: saw Daves post

            Comment


            • #7
              Like the Langolier, I prefer trying to get it in on the flop.
              The flop doesn't hit many hands. Most Broadways missed completely, and any one pair hands are going to be quite weak, so you have good fold equity against anything except a set.
              Buttons's raise looks like a top pair that wants to take it down or get heads up, so reraising there puts him to a tough decision and probably gets rid of villain 6.
              I really don't understand your small re-donk on the turn. What is the purpose of betting 6.50 into 27.25 when there are still two opponents, one of whom just raised the flop? Is it some sort of blocking bet?

              I agree with others that only the flush outs are good here. With all this action on the turn, you could well be up against a turned straight and a flopped set, or two pair.

              As to the pot odds and equity...
              If you call the last 41.07, the final pot will be 27.25 + 6.50 + 47.57 + 36.42 + 41.07 = 158.81
              And equity required = cost of call/final pot = 41.07/158.81 = 25.8%

              With just a flush draw and one card to come, your equity is nearer 20%, so this is a clear fold.
              Bracelet Winner

              Comment


              • #8
                For some reason I used to get a lot more of these 'multi-way all-in, with a suited-connected board, after making a bet and getting reraised'. And they were happening at the same time I was playing more high-variance (like winding up playing a lot of flips for stacks ... which have an EV of zero, but make one's graph go crazy wild).

                So I'd call a lot, and was constantly surprised to see how often one of the other players would be practically drawing dead because their hand was dominated.

                Like to look at the two villains here, you'd tend to think like, zomg ... surely the reraiser in the c/o has a set! And then the caller surely has the straight! But most of the time when I was playing these big pots with draw-heavy boards, people would wind up turning over set over set with one of the two drawing dead, or set versus 2pr (like 89s - also drawing dead), or the cut-off could have JTs and be in bad shape against Sandtrap, or JJ and be in bad shape against a set, or the button could have JKs and have fewer outs because Sandtrap had the nut draw like Dave said?

                But then you know what, even when I was *just* getting odds to call, I dunno if it was worth it in the long-run to be playing for stacks and losing a buy-in 2/3 the time, and winning 2 buy-ins the other time. Like, isn't that just like playing flips for stacks ... EV of zero? Like I guess we profit from having greater odds of winning than pot odds to call?

                But it was kind of fun to play big pots ... so there was that ...

                I guess that wasn't very math-y ...


                Ahhh ... gonna go have another cup of coffee ...
                Last edited by TrustySam; Sun Feb 10, 2013, 05:38 PM.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Sandtrap777 View Post
                  and the values from a HUD, that I wanted to understand how the numbers would affect a decision without notes
                  Well the values from your HUD don't do much for us at the decision point. They give some indication of starting hand ranges. CB stat for the preflop raiser is irrelevant since we didn't give him the chance and led into him on the flop.

                  So it boils down to an evaluation of their ranges and, if they are thinking players, how they will perceive ours given our action and history with them.
                  Head Live Trainer
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                  4 Time Bracelet Winner



                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Well as you say, you don't go by the numbers. Even by Player 1 entering the pot it will change his stats so significantly you can't go by them. Player 2 stats will also change so these numbers don't mean much anyway.

                    You really don't have enough numbers on both opponents to gather enough information but you can glean some things from them. The 100% CBet stat is interesting which tells me he likes to bluff and bully.

                    As to what to do I can't tell you. I'm not a cash player and my decision in a STT would vary as to what stage of the game we were at.

                    You should be using a HUD for extra information and not how to play the hand imo. A HUD can help you in making those decisions.
                    Bracelet Winner

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Ok, now here are my personal notes on theses players. Villain_6 (Blue Fish) 23/1/13 Cont bet with nothing till river for straight 26/1/13 All in after flop with nothing missed flush 28/1/13 All in after flop with nothing missed straight 5/2/13 All in after turn with S pair loss 5/2/13 All in after turn for straight This player likes to be aggressive and makes players fold. He plays 4 tables and is a regular platinum player. In this hand, I put him on a possible flush or straight still not made. If it's a flush I win, if it's a straight I lose, if he misses I win with T's. Villain_1 (Blue Fish) 26/1/13 Huge bet on M pair 4/2/13 Keeps calling with S pair 5/2/13 Keeps calling with AK doesn't hit 6/2/13 All in P flop with 22 This player likes to play lots of hands and he's sure his small or medium pair are winner. This player only plays 1 table and is a Bronze player. In this hand, I put him on A9, A8, A4 or even AK In both cases, I didn't expect anything great from both players and with that in mind, I was giving myself 13 outs (One ace to Villain_1) and of course Pot Odds. Another decision and not necessarily a good one, my winnings to this point was $142, so I decided to risk a little. So I did make the call. You might be surprise of the result, so here it goes. All I wanted to show, is that even with all the possible numbers, if you don't have any notes on the players, it's a tough decision. Just like with numbers, notes have a percentage of errors. Based on the notes, I would say and that's just a guess, 25% of the time, they probably will win. I was right about Villain_6 and wrong about Villain_1 and got lucky with my 14 outs, which was really 9 outs now knowing what they had.
                      Last edited by Sandtrap777; Sun Feb 10, 2013, 08:02 PM.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I recently purchased Notecaddy which notes things for me. It gives similar notes to what you picked up on and it misses nothing. It won't in this case give me a clue that the whale has AA but would you have picked up on that by his play in this hand anyway?

                        As I said use these things for added info and not on a way to play. Nothing can compensate for good solid play which you already do. As Poker is a game of information shouldn't you really be putting your attention to as much of it as you can?
                        Bracelet Winner

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                        • #13
                          Originally posted by Ovalman View Post
                          You should be using a HUD for extra information and not how to play the hand imo.
                          ^^This.

                          A HUD provides you informational data which helps in the decision making process. Poker is a game of incomplete information and the more of it you have, the better. But if you misuse the HUD stats, or put too much emphasis on them, you'll make mistakes, plain and simple.
                          Head Live Trainer
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                          4 Time Bracelet Winner



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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by Ovalman View Post
                            You should be using a HUD for extra information and not how to play the hand imo. A HUD can help you in making those decisions.
                            LOL.... Notes are more useful to me than HUD numbers. Maybe if I was playing just one or two tables in regular mode, I would give it a try again. I did use it for 2 weeks and it was more of a nuisance to my game. Let me know how you do with a HUD in live play...lol I guess to each their own umbup:

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
                              ^^This.

                              A HUD provides you informational data which helps in the decision making process. Poker is a game of incomplete information and the more of it you have, the better. But if you misuse the HUD stats, or put too much emphasis on them, you'll make mistakes, plain and simple.
                              I totally agree that if you miss use the info of your HUD, you'll be in huge trouble and like I said before, HUD numbers should never dictate your decision, it's just an aid.
                              I guess playing 800 hands an hour, I don't have time to look up different numbers.
                              Maybe, just maybe, I'll take the time required to learn how to use a HUD properly. Doing so will demand lots of time and probably lots of help. Maybe....later

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