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5nl Zoom - 77 OOP against aggressive reg.

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  • 5nl Zoom - 77 OOP against aggressive reg.

    I feel I could be making a meal of this one and overthinking the situation. If I am please feel free to give me a clip round the ear and tell me to wise up. The villain is a 2 tabling reg, I have no specific reads but have 83 hands on him. He's playing 22/15 stealing OTB 40% of the time, his AF is 3.5 and his cbet 80%. Preflop I call as a setmine and flop an overpair, my standard play here would be to check call however against this type of reg where playing later streets will be more difficult OOP could a x/r be a good idea to pick up the dead money and get him to fold overcard equity? The flop goes check check and the turn is an 8. I feel that I can get value her from A high hands and smaller PP's . I make a small half pot value bet and get raised. At this point it seems very unlikely to me that he has a hand. It's a good time for me to stab at the pot and hence a good time for him to raise. I figure he would do this with better overpairs but also a healthy mixture of worse hands that I felt would call the turn bet. I feel that I have the best hand here a lot of the time and decide to call figuring he'll give up on his bluff if he misses the river. The J hits the river, I don't really think that this hits his range much but stick with the plan and check to him. He then makes a small half pot bet which I'm unsure what to make of. Should I just stick with the plan and fold, or given that I only need to be good 1 in 4 times can I call? I'm really struggling with his range here so apologies if my train of thought is a little vague. Thanks in advance Oliver
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  • #2
    Hi Oliver,

    If you think you're ahead on the turn then you should call the river. If you think you're behind then you should have folded the turn. *Have a plan*. You want to get to the point where you are never asking what to do on the river here, because you have already answered that question before calling the turn raise.

    In this hand actually I would 3-bet preflop, not flat call. While he c-bets a lot he's not a good candidate to set mine. Normal raise avg is 15% and on the button it balloons to 40%. That means out of his button raises, 25/40 (62.5% of the time) he's raising with a hand that he wouldn't normally open. And he's normally a TAG. This means 2 things... 1) when you do flop a set he will often not have a hand strong enough to give you action, and 2) he's going to be succeptable to preflop resteals in this position as his open is wide and he knows where the fold button is. Not that 77 is the perfect resteal hand or anything, but it should be more profitable to play this way than putting yourself in a lot of marginal post flop spots OOP without the initiative not having more detailed history or reads on when you can call down profitable and when to fold. I would be inclined to 3b a pretty wide range against this guy in this situation, until he's fighting back regularly or adjusting is steal range.
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    • #3
      3-bet pre, or donk the flop. Both cost about the same, and both utilize fold equity. If he reraises, repping a bigger hand, you can fold and lose the minimum.

      As played, make your decision on the turn. I'd fold to his raise, as I don't think villains at these stakes are bluffing here often enough.
      Your plan should never be "Call the turn raise, fold if he bets the river", because he's nearly always betting the river after raising the turn, and your 2-outer isn't going to hit often enough.
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