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5nl Zoom - A9s OTB. Flopped 2 pair facing turn raise and river bet.

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  • 5nl Zoom - A9s OTB. Flopped 2 pair facing turn raise and river bet.

    The SB is a relatively unknown player but appears to be shaping up to be quite tight although I have a very small sample on him. Over 44 hands he is playing 13/10 AF 3.0; his total FST is 83% (6 hands) and he has folded 2/3 times in the SB. I raise on the button to steal and the SB calls, I flop 2 pair and make a cbet for value he calls and the turn comes a Q. He checks to me again and I see no reason not to bet for value, he will likely call with a TP Ax hand so I bet 35c into 55c. I think this bet may be a little bit as it might push the weaker Ax hands away..? He x/r me and I'm pretty unsure what to do. My hand feels to strong to fold right away and I don't feel comfortable getting the money in; as when he calls off he's going to have sets and AQ. Therefore I decide to call in the hopes that he'll slow down OTR and I can see a showdown. He doesn't oblige but instead bets the river fairly small, it smells like value to me and I think AQ is the bottom of his value range there so I deicide to fold. So my question... 1) Was my turn bet too big? 2) Was my ranging of him correct? If not could I have called the river? 3) Could I have saved myself some moeny by folding right away OTT or is they a good chance he's x/r a worse hand OTT? Cheers Oliver
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  • #2
    Hey Oliver

    Kind of a gross spot but you've identified a lot of ingredients that lead us to believe your hand is only absolutely strong, but not relatively strong. And relative strength is what we need, strength relative to our opponent's range, in evaluating our hand.

    For that reason it is great to see you just call the turn check-raise, as opposed to three-bet. I think there might be room for a bet/fold on the turn, which seems insanely nitty, but if he is playing A4 this way, he is going to be betting the river with it a lot, and it will be protected by his 44/AQ/99 combinations. I think his single most likely hand though is AQ given the preflop action and his call of your min raise.

    You did not bet the turn too large. If anything you bet it too small! I would bet .40 there pretty often since it seems extremely likely villain has an ace and is going to fold non aces to .35 anyways. Does that makes sense? We got value from 88 or T9 or those type of hands on the flop and they are usually going to give it up on the turn esp by this player, so now we should focus on AT/AJ for the most part, in terms of getting value.

    The answer to 2 is yes. He laid you a very nice price on the turn, but in the same vein, I don't expect him to ever bluff for this size. The question is do you get the right price against a range of A4/A9/AQ/44/99. Might be worth stoving.

    No.. sit down, relax! I'll do it

    I am pretty inclined to think his range is this


    Board: Ad 4d 9s Qc 2h
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 19.231% 15.38% 03.85% 2 0.50 { Ac9c }
    Hand 1: 80.769% 76.92% 03.85% 10 0.50 { 99, 44, AQs, A9s, A4s, AQo }


    Not something like this


    Board: Ad 4d 9s Qc 2h
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 25.000% 12.50% 12.50% 2 2.00 { Ac9c }
    Hand 1: 75.000% 62.50% 12.50% 10 2.00 { 99, 44, AQs, A9s, A4s, AQo, A9o }

    He is betting 1.30 into 2.75

    So you need to have 1.30/4.05 equity to call

    1.30/4.05 = 32%

    Board: Ad 4d 9s Qc 2h
    Dead:

    equity win tie pots won pots tied
    Hand 0: 40.000% 30.00% 10.00% 6 2.00 { Ac9c }
    Hand 1: 60.000% 50.00% 10.00% 10 2.00 { 99, 44, AQs, A9s, A4s, AQo, A9o, A4o }

    So we need him to be playing every A4o combination preflop and to play them all this way. Normally I would say that's not a stretch from the sb facing a min open, but your VPIP/PFR stats on him over even that many hands can be quite definitive on some points, such as how likely we think he cold calls A4o, which is to say, unlikely.

    So the answer to 2 must be that you were right to fold the river. And the answer to 3 sounds strange, but I think yeah, you could have bet/hero folded. That's what the logic dictates. But its also a "laser sharp read." So don't worry about it to much, you came to the right conclusions in the end

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