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10NL Zoom BVB 2p Raised

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  • 10NL Zoom BVB 2p Raised

    Villain is a reg, 19/16, AF: 4.8 over 2.3k hands. 3bet: 8.7%, BB 3bet: 12%, Flop cbet: 63%, Flop cbet(3b pot): 61%(23), Turn Cbet: 39%(16) Think this is a weird hand. Reg min-3bets, cbet, check turn, raise river 3x. I don't know what to make of this line and whether my 2 pairs are good. Think his min-3bet is just a weak resteal so perhaps we can exclude premiums JJ+, AK. Most reasonable hand I put him on, taking this line will be JT. Doubt he has a set as he would have cbet it on the wet board. Don't know if he can be bluffing river with a busted flush draw. Is a call or fold better here?

  • #2
    His check on the turn is quite weird. He'd have to playing really tricky to show up w/ AA-KK or a set here, as I think he'd be betting the turn for value/protection if he had those hands. Equally any Qx hand would likely bet the turn. (His low barrelling tendency indicates he only fires the turn when he has a made hand).
    So I think you're right. The only hand he can have that beats you that takes this line is JT.
    I guess K9 (which you beat) is a possibility (standard c-bet, check when he has showdown value, raising with rivered two pair) but I'm not sure if he can raise a second best two pair on this board.
    The river raise still gives you pot odds of 3-1, so you only need to be good a quarter of the time to break even, but I really don't know if this particular villain would bluff (or valuebet worse than top 2) that often.
    His AF is quite high, but that could be because he plays fit or fold, rather than bluffs often. River raises at microstakes are usually the (near) nuts, so folding would be sound, but villain's weird line would probably lead me to make a "curiosity call". If he's got anything except JT, then a useful note can be made.
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    • #3
      Hi TANW,

      I'm not thrilled with playing KQo OOP here without the initiative. Despite the small 3b sizing (it's not a min-3b btw, min would be .40c) I don't like calling because it invites us to do just that. He's a fairly aggressive 3-bettor and it's blind v blind so he's probably 3-betting wider than 8.7% here as well, which would incline me to 4b him in this spot sometimes. If I did so I'm making it around 1.75. This should be enough to discourage loose calls and light 5-bets. My plan will be to fold to a 5b, c-bet any flop if called, and give up if he still doesn't go away and I've missed.

      As played, I would call the river. While I wouldn't be surprised to see a hand like 99 (not a good turn check with a set but some people get slow play crazy with sets), or like Arty said JT also makes sense, we can see K9, Q9, and even a thin value raise with AK I'm not thrilled with getting raised, but as Gareth likes to say, people tend to lose their minds blind v blind more often than any other matchups, so I think top 2 is too strong to fold in this spot.
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