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5nl Zoom - A8s vs regular BvB. Sould I bluff the river?

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  • 5nl Zoom - A8s vs regular BvB. Sould I bluff the river?

    The villain in the BB is a 4 tabling regular, over 146 hands his stats are 23/16/7.6 AF - 3.0. For me the raise preflop, and flop cbet are very standard. When I pick up on the heart draw OTT I think it is a great time to fire the second barrel as I pick up a lot of equity and he can have a very wide range given that we are BvB. On the river a 3rd queen hits and I'm unsure whether or not this is a good card to bluff on. The villain rates to hold at least a pair and given that the river card will often give him a fullhouse can I ever get him to fold? If you would bet this river what bet sizing would you take? Thanks Oliver
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  • #2
    Hi Oliver,

    I disagree with the turn assessment, this is not a good spot to barrel imo. You said you think he can have a very wide range given it's bvb, but define what range you think is reasonable here? When he calls your flop bet on QQ9 rainbow a really wide range would have to include a ton of floats with air, is that likely from this guy? I think he'll have a lot of pairs including small pockets, 9x, and bigger aces, some straight draws, and Qx+. The turn card is very safe for this range, so it's not likely to dissuade him from calling again. While you pick up some hand equity with the flush draw, you do not pick up much if any fold equity imo (unless he's got tons of air floats, but you're beating all those anyway). And if he has the Q he is going to raise you off the hand on the turn. For all these reasons I would actually check and call a bet here (allowing him a chance to bluff his floats and worse hands, while guaranteeing I see the river with my draw vs. anything he might have raised a bet with).

    As to your river question, Zeebo's theorem applies imo. Betting anything is just lighting money on fire. Remember where you are in this hand... you barreled the turn thinking he would call very wide on the flop simply because it's BvB, and now on the river you're asking if he might fold a full house.

    I think this is a case (we all sometimes fall into) of trying to win every hand we enter. Sometimes we don't, and we don't have to. It's ok to just give up sometimes
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