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NL10 FR: AKo, turned TPTK, tough river spot

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  • NL10 FR: AKo, turned TPTK, tough river spot

    No stats & no reads. First of all, what should have I done on the river as played? And, was this an OK line to take? Alternatives? Please opine. Lester
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  • #2
    My thoughts are as played the river is a call. When we think about how the and played out the villain opens from the button and has a wide range, then calls the 3-bet so we can assume it's may not be complete garbage, weaker aces, broadways, small to medium pairs and maybe suited connector hands. The c-bet on a fairly dry flop is standard so he could float with his entire range so doesn't have to have anything. When the ace comes bringing a potential flush and you bet again I'd say he doesn't have to put you on the ace and can still call this bet with draws, high diamonds, and weaker aces. When the fairly blank river comes you check and I don't know if you meant it but to me this looks like a check to induce a bluff. He could easily be betting with a busted flush draw or some other hand that didn't get there. If he has the flush or some 2 pair type hand then good game but I think we have to pay it off.

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    • #3
      Hi Lester,

      Prelfop 3b is fine, as is continuation betting HU but the bet is sized pretty large, why 2/3rds of the pot here? The board is pretty dry (it's unlikely he has exactly 2 diamonds) and most of his random steals have missed, so we don't need to bet this big to take it down... .75c should be plenty here.

      On the river as played, easy call imo. When you check to him I would expect him to bet worse aces for value (putting you on JJ-KK) and possibly bluff busted flush draws when he holds a single big diamond. The whole reason to check here instead of bet again is to induce value from the parts of his range that need to bluff to win, so we can't fold when said bet comes. If he will also bet worse aces himself so that we don't lose value from those checking down, it's the prefered line to maximize.
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      • #4
        I am actually not giving him credit for a made flush but consider the possibility he could be holding a set (TT or 99) or 2 pair (AT or A9). Am I giving the villain too much credit? My c-bet is that large as a result of adjusting my sizing at lower limits, 2NL and 5NL. I've found at those stakes, my half pot sized c-bets were getting called way too often and felt I wasn't punishing draw hands enough.

        The river bet could be a bluff from a busted flush draw (unlikely) or a weaker ace. My thought now is that maybe I should have x/c on the turn and then bet (if the turn was checked back) or x/shove (if I had to call a turn bet) on the river. As played, would this spot ever be a x/shove?
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        • #5
          I wouldn't check/shove the river, no.
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