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Missed value on the turn/River bet sizing

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  • Missed value on the turn/River bet sizing

    Hi guys, I would like your opinion on my bet size on the river in this hand. It is a 5nl FR zoom table. I don't have any reads on the villain because I don't use a HUD. My thoughts: Preflop: Since it folds to me, I decide to min-raise as a steal from the button as this usually works at this level. Flop: I flop an OESD so I cbet and expect to get action from hands like 8x, 6x, , two-pair, pocket pairs (33,44,77,99+), overcards and some straight draws as well. I decide to call the villains raise since I have equity vs this range. Turn: The turn's an overcard but also gives me more outs to improve to a flush. I think I missed some value on the turn by checking since my equity improved. What do you think? River: I get the flush on the river and bet just about half pot just to get called by pairs/two pairs. Should I have bet bigger and would I have been called by worse if I did? - I think I might have if I made it say 2/3 of the pot. Regards, RFlush007
    Last edited by RFlush007; Sat Jan 26, 2013, 01:04 PM.
    Bracelet Winner

  • #2
    Hi RFlush,

    Preflop steal is fine. Semi-bluffing the flop with a c-bet is good too, we give the villain a chance to fold misses and we start growing the pot a bit when he doesn't fold for the disguised straight if it comes in.

    Once he raises, it's unclear whether 3-betting as a semi-bluff or flatting is best, it depends a lot on the villain tendancies (which influence his range and risk tolerance) and you don't have any reads. As this is the case, I think flatting is probably better and retaining your positional advantage.

    Regarding your turn question, I agree you missed some equity in not betting: fold equity. His check is an indicator that he is likely not on a monster like a set or 68, but rather that he A) doesn't like getting his check-raise called and B) doesn't like the king (he'll always have AK in the back of his mind for your holding). So this is a great spot imo to bet like .65c as a semi-bluff... you should get a lot of folds which is a fantastic result since you have 7 high and no showdown value right now... and as you noted, you have also picked up additional hand equity with the heart draw adding to your insurance policy when he doesn't fold.

    On the river I think your bet sizing is fine. He's checked to you twice now, he is probably either giving up a move (air) or has a hand like 98s which is now just 3rd pair, it's hard to see him calling too big a bet with this weak a hand. Without reads I think it's a good sizing here, unless he's a station or light bluff catcher, as he just doesn't rate to have much strength.
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    • #3
      Thank you Dave.
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