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10NL Zoom Set Raised (III)

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  • 10NL Zoom Set Raised (III)

    Again, common spot. Just that this's on a very wet board. Villain's 17/11, AF: 2.7 over 231 hands. Flop FCB: 60%(5), Flop Raise CB: 40%(5), Flop donkbet: 43%(7), BB FTStl: 64%(14) I was totally yucks when he minraised, and rereraised to $7. That coming from a tight guy just screamed strength. Assigned him the range of { AJs, KQs, KsJs, QTs+, AJo, KQo, QTo+ } and we're 60% favourite. Included the KJ spades which had 15 outs. Didn't put KK and QQ as I didn't think he'll slowplay. Not sure if he'll do this with AK spades though. Was my range assessment right, thinking that this tight Villain type will get it in with Flush Draws and 2 pairs? And as a general rule of thumb, should we always just get it in with bottom set on this board texture?

  • #2
    I wouldn't discount AK entirely, and maybe include a few combos of QJ and JT, as a pair + OESD usually has good enough equity for a raise. There's only one ten left in the deck, but KT is also a possibility. Villain might also defend his BB w/ hands like K9s, so he'll be raising with the spades version. There's also J9s that flopped the idiot end of the straight.

    There are lots of pair + draw combinations, as you've noticed, along with the obvious two pair hands. I'm definitely 3-betting the flop and stacking off on safe turn cards if he just calls the re-raise. As played, he 4-bets the flop, so he's not folding to a shove. It's a pretty horrible spot, but my general rule is to never fold a set on the flop when heads up. I'd only consider mucking on a later street if there was a 4-straight/flush and I didn't have the odds to try and boat/quad up.
    At the lowest stakes, if you flop a set heads up and you don't get all in when you have the chance, then you're probably missing out on a lot of profit.
    Bracelet Winner

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    • #3
      Hi TANW,

      I think it's very overly optimistic to include bottom 2 pair and pair+straight draws in his range, I would generally not do it. He's check/raised, your 3b should show great strength, and he's responded by 4-betting basically all in, but not actually all in (he has totally committed himself, but not applied maximum pressure to leverage fold equity... a sign he is not on a draw but has a made hand).

      I think he can be doing this with KQ and bigger sets (he's not slowplaying, he's putting in a c/r and 4b on the flop, that's about as fast as it gets). If you meant preflop, no way I would discount those, if he has TAG stats on you he might choose to flat these pre a lot to keep your steals and worse hands in. AJ obv. KsJs is the one hand I think would be playing this aggressive/stacking off on a draw as he will perceive himself to be a favorite against your range.

      Even against this range we've still got like 42% equity and with the money already in the middle we only need about 30% to play for the rest of the effective stacks, so go ahead and get the rest in. If he's got more hands in his range (anything weaker) only makes it even better for us.
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      • #4
        Thanks all Been getting lots of situations with sets which I think I could be beaten but just couldn't find the Fold BTN. 2 types of Villains I give credit to- regulars and passive opponents. Had some nice bottom set folds in the past in multiway pots when they took an aggressive action (I had the right reads). Heads up is another type of tough scenario.

        This hand Villain had AJo, flopping the straight. On the spot had the right instinct that I'm already beaten when he made it $7 (I'm getting more paranoid nowadays- negativity seeped in way faster when my sets kept getting owned). But seeing I had only $6.45 left, I shipped it, thinking I had 30% chance to suck out if he really had AJ. If not, we'll be way ahead. Thus took the chance. Don't know if this's the right thought process. My first instinct vs the taking chance (sounds like gambling) instinct are giving me a hard time.

        But nevertheless since Math says we should get it in so it's the right play. Can't be possibly thinking about folding sets all the time... Sigh...

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