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10NL Zoom Nuts Turn and River Line

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  • 10NL Zoom Nuts Turn and River Line

    V was 39/29, AF:1.2 over 41 hands. Flop FCB: 0%(3), Flop Raise CB: 33%(3), Turn FCB: 0%(1) OTT is it ok to plan to flat the minraise and call a reasonable bet OTR? OTR we got the nuts. When Villain calls Flop, minraise Turn, he can be very strong like having 88 or AQ. Can he be doing this with a non-boat Ace trips too? On the balance, assigning him range of boats and trips, should we jam the River? Or bet 1/2 pot to induce him to raise with a boat?
    Last edited by TheAwesomeNW; Wed Jan 23, 2013, 03:22 PM.

  • #2
    Royal Flush? Niceeee.
    Although you always have to be worried about boats on paired boards (especially when it contains 2 aces), I'm always calling the minraise on the turn, as you have a decent flush, and villain is likely to have trips. To me, his minraise says "I have trip aces, but I'm scared you flopped a flush". His post-flop stats are fishy, and it looks like you'll get paid in full, so the implied odds are there.
    Since he raised the turn, I can't see him ever folding the river, even for a full pot bet. You have just under a PSB left, so stick it in and laugh when he shows you a full house or just trips.
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    • #3
      Hi TANW,

      On the flop bet bigger than your default 2/3rds pot, for similair reasons to the other hand of yours I replied to a couple days ago.

      On the turn I would call his min-raise as I think a guy with his stats (even though a limited sample size) can have just an ace here and also worse flushes (don't forget about those, he's very loose preflop) often enough.

      On the river, never bet half the pot with the intent being to induce a raise as it's already half your stack... he will probably only shove full houses for the rest but he will always call a shove with FH's anyway. IMO it's between checking to induce or shoving here. And I would completely disregard boats, as I think all the money goes in no matter what we do if he's full. So the question becomes what's the best way to maximize value against worse than boats, like AJ (with the J high flush or without). This guy's very limited stats lean me towards believing he will err on the side of passive and check down trips a lot to a scary river like this, but it also seems he doesn't like to fold when he's got something, so my best guess is that there's more value in shoving than checking to induce here.
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      • #4
        Originally posted by TheLangolier View Post
        On the river, never bet half the pot with the intent being to induce a raise as it's already half your stack... he will probably only shove full houses for the rest but he will always call a shove with FH's anyway. IMO it's between checking to induce or shoving here. And I would completely disregard boats, as I think all the money goes in no matter what we do if he's full. So the question becomes what's the best way to maximize value against worse than boats, like AJ (with the J high flush or without). This guy's very limited stats lean me towards believing he will err on the side of passive and check down trips a lot to a scary river like this, but it also seems he doesn't like to fold when he's got something, so my best guess is that there's more value in shoving than checking to induce here.
        Didn't quite catch this part. Are we assuming that his trips are inelastic hands over here, either calling or folding to any bet? Thus we should always jam to get max value. Cos I thought it was an elastic range if he didn't have a diamond, or had a weak diamond, which will call maybe a 1/3 to half pot bet.

        The action continues with me betting half pot and and him flatting with 88. True enough that he's passive and didn't put in the rest. Really don't get it why he didn't go all in, afraid of AK, AQ? Lost that $3 of value.

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